“Race on Sunday, Sell on Monday” & My Ferrari V12 Hunt

Race on Sunday, Sell on Monday

Aston Martin Aramco Cognizant Formula One™ Team’s, Fernando Alonso’s surprising 3rd place finish at the 2023 F1’s seasons opening race in Bahrain for the has generated a lot of hype among Aston Martin fans with lots of speculation that the success on the track will drive car sales for Aston Martin Lagonda.  Question is, in today’s day and age, does the old adage from the 1960’s “Race on Sunday, Sell on Monday” still hold any weight?  Put another way, if does Alonso find his way to standing on the F1 podium a few more times in the coming months, does this signal a major change in Aston Martin’s fortunes?

To try and find an answer, I will start my deeply unscientific analysis by first looking at Ferrari car sales over the last decade (for the purpose of this exercise I am ignoring COVID decimated 2020) as they are the most iconic brand in F1 and therefore serve as the benchmark against which all others are measured.  In addition, Ferrari has a long history both in the sport and selling cars on the side.  In 2013, Ferrari sold 6,922 cars and in 2022, they sold 13,221.  Ferrari’s sales rose steadily over the decade delivering a CAGR of 6.7%.  During this period, Ferrari finished 2nd in the F1 standings five times, 3rd three times, & 4th once. When looking at the yearly sales numbers, there appears to be zero impact of any change in Ferrari’s F1 results on the car unit sales growth in any given year.  As a further point of reference, in the 1st decade of this century, during which Ferrari won 7 F1 Constructors Championships, sales grew at a CAGR of 4.5%.

Given both the strength and longevity of the Ferrari brand, I thought it was worth pulling a second point of reference.  As Mercedes F1 has been the most successful team in F1 over the past decade, it should provide to be a great benchmark on how success on the track on Sunday translates to moving cars off the showroom floor come Monday.  In its first decade back in F1, Mercedes-Benz car sales grew at a respectable CARG of 3.4%.  Not quite as impressive as Ferrari in the same time period but it is off a considerably high base.  Only issue here is Mercedes-Benz CAGR for the decade before it reentered Formula 1 was 6.9%.  It doesn’t appear podium finishes were much of a sales driver.

Moving on to Aston Martin (and continuing to ignore COVID decimated 2020).  In recent history Aston Martin Lagonda has been the title sponsor for two independently owned Formula 1 Teams.  From 2018-2020, Aston Martin had a sponsorship agreement with Red Bull and from 2021-> with the former Racing Point F1 Team (now rebranded as Aston Martin Aramco Cognizant F1 Team).  Over the life of the AM-RB sponsorship, Aston Martin Lagonda (AML) car sales grew at a CAGR of 4.8%.  Through year end 2022 of the AM-former Racing Point sponsorship, AML car sales grew at a CAGR of 3% (including the newly launch DBX SUV and but declined at a rate of 19% for the more relevant and F1 related Sports/GT cars.  Based on this very thin data, it would appear that AML’s money was better spent on sponsoring the Red Bull F1 Team. 

As one final data point, Red Bull’s unit sales of its energy drink have grown at a CAGR of 7.95% over the last decade.  This significantly exceeds the growth numbers put up by any of the car manufacturers who are currently involved in Formula 1.  Perhaps for the 2026 F1 season we will see new teams from Pepsi/Gatorade, Starbucks, and Monster Energy.

Net net, it doesn’t appear that an improvement on Aston Martin Aramco Cognizant F1 Team’s results on the track will translate into any measurable increase in AML’s car sales.  While Fernando Alonso may now drive for AMF1, he is far more closely associated with Renault (with whom he won two World Championships) and Ferrari (where he finished 2nd in the World Championship three times).  Hence the recent success of the AMF1 team is far more likely to be attributed to Alonso’s brilliance as a Formula 1 driver than translate into driving a major shift in sales trajectory for the team’s title sponsor.  Now if Aston Martin sold energy drinks, it might be a different situation ………

My Ferrari V12 Hunt

As first world problems go, not currently having a Ferrari V12 GT has to be at about the top of the list.  Over the years, I’ve had a bit of a twisted relationship with front engine Ferrari V12s GTs (Man Math & Ferrari V12s).  It can basically be described as lust, acquisition, bonding, drifting apart, and then neglect.  I love the idea, and nothing can beat the feeling of the surge of power a naturally aspirated V12 delivers, but when it comes to owning and using the car, the reality has been a bit of a mixed experience.   The V12s we have owned tend to get a lot of use early on but after a while tend to sit, usually losing the key grab war to the mid-engine V8 Spiders if there was any risk of the sun being out.  It’s that top down nimbler, sportier feeling that the mid engine cars deliver so well that normally tips the scales in their favor. 

The door for a Ferrari acquisition has recently reopened.  A good friend is now the General Manager for one of the leading Ferrari dealerships.  I have purchased multiple cars from him in the past and it has always been a great experience. Having someone I trust on the other side of the deal is something I put an enormous amount of importance on.

The open air potential of a Ferrari 812 GTS is highly appealing, and I have put in a pre-order for one.  However even if I am lucky enough to get a build slot, it will still be at least 12-18 months before the 812 GTS would land on my driveway. While the Ferrari F12 is a coupe, it could be a great interim option as it is front mid engine design and the twin clutch gearboxes make for a major leap forward in terms of driving feel vs. prior generations of Ferrari V12 GTs.  In addition, with multiple road trips already planned for this year, a Ferrari V12 does make for the ultimate long road trip vehicle.  The question is do I wait and see if the Ferrari Gods smile on me with an 812 GTS build slot, or do I acquire a F12 at least for the interim and then trade it in if/when the 812 GTS lands?

I have been following the Ferrari F12 market fairly closely for about a year and a half now.  While it hasn’t been headed in my direction (i.e down) as quickly as I would like, the events in the last two weeks should give it a good shove southward.  If credit markets were tight before, the next six months has the potential to be downright ugly.  In preparation, I have sorted the “Use Case”  out (see: Use Case Rule ) and gotten Mrs. SSO’s approval.  There are several F12s we have taken a look at but the specs on all haven’t quite fit the brief.  For a GT, we are looking for a more classic light color interior with a darker color exterior.  The 612 Scaglietti we owned about a decade ago was a near perfect karenable GT spec of NART Blue with an ivory interior.  If we could find the F12 with the same spec that would be ideal.  So far, the closest we have gotten in terms of spec is a F12 for sale at Ferrari of Seattle.  However, the asking price is more a reflection of Cannabis consumption in Washington State than reality.

I would not be surprised to see another $30k drop in F12 prices by the end of the summer months which would then make the last Pininfarina designed Ferrari V12 GT a great buy and the whole “Cost of Mileage” (see: Cost of Mileage) thing irrelevant as I would just hold it for the next 30 years if the 812 GTS does not materialize.

 

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March 2023

 

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9 Thoughts on “Race on Sunday, Sell on Monday” & My Ferrari V12 Hunt
    John (The original).
    21 Mar 2023
     5:39pm

    I rate Vettel a better driver than Alonso. Vettel is super smooth, and with it deceptively fast. He can put in lap after lap with precision. I seen that at his first win when I was fortunate enough to be at the Italian GP. Alonso was one of the worst, missing braking points and going long into the first chicane, or just too slow next time round.

    Alonso’s overtaking technique is to put his car in the way of the other and let them avoid the accident. And when he had the mass-damper fitted to his car he really could do that easily on kerbs. I watch on the TiVo device in slow motion how much more stable Alonso’s car was going over kerbs compared with Schumacher.

    Ferrari gave him a car capable of winning a championship and he couldn’t. Vettel winning that year. And if Vettel was in that Racing Point today I believe he’d be further ahead.

    But you also have Verstappen and he’s copied Alonso’s technique of putting the car in danger and letting the other guy avoid the accident. And F1 desperate for viewers has let him weaponise this, and lets him off with crashing in to other drivers. He nearly killed Lewis in Monza and it was the Halo that saved Lewis’s life that day. Previously at Silverstone Max’s attempt to run Lewis off the road had himself in the barriers. Absolutely pointless, but he’s a self-entitled brat who spits out his dummy (pacifier for the US) when he doesn’t get his way, and then bites off the hands that feed him. For me, that’s made F1 unwatchable. That’s not even mentioning the FIA gifting Verstappen a championship!

    I do keep up with F1 news, and what Alonso had in Saudi was amateur hour stuff from the FIA. Waiting 25 laps and a podium ceremony before stripping Alonso of his 3rd place. Laughable incompetence. And just to prove how incompetent, then deciding several hours later to let Alonso keep his 3rd place! The “sport” is lacking integrity when the FIA are making decisions upon entertainment value.

    Is F1 now WWF1?

    I like the idea of a V12 out front. Perfect for those longer journeys where a bit more comfort is nice. Of course, people think of Ferrari as the sports car company, but if you look at what they actually offer it’s more GT with the Roma, new Purosangue, and 812 Superfast. Their only sportscars are the SF90 and 296. F8 is now more or less gone, and the Portofino just replaced with a Roma convertible (not sure of the full name yet – that’s how new). It’s funny that people think of Aston as the GT company! And in that respect, sad too that because of disastrous design after design by Reichman you’d didn’t even put the DBS on the list. Not a reflection on you, but rather how badly Aston are failing to connect with the market. And we know it’s because of Reichman’s designs.

    Definitely like your thinking over which to buy to keep you going until an 812 GTS arrives.

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    Bill
    22 Mar 2023
     7:54am

    I’ve always thought of F1 as a waste of time for car companies, but it’s interesting to see the actual numbers. Interesting also that Toyota entered F1 and then pulled out, Jaguar certainly see any benefit, and BMW simply haven’t bothered with F1 in years, (hasn’t done them any harm). Meanwhile high-performing Bentley and Lamborghini have never even participated.
    Meanwhile, Stroll’s Racing Point team did very well out of sponsorship revenue by charging Aston Martin to put their logo on his car !

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    Nick Kerigan
    23 Mar 2023
     10:35pm

    Love your new search for a Ferrari V12 and intrigued to see where this lands…
    Will it draw you back towards Ferrari after many McLarens?
    Good luck!

    Btw the 612 was NART Blu 🙂

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    SSO’s Supercar Plans for 2023 | karenable
    28 Mar 2023
     5:56pm

    […] at one new arrival with potential another addition that has already passed its Use Case test (see V12 Hunt).  There are a few cars I would like to drive for the 1st (or on a much more extended 2nd) time […]

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    Gavin
    28 Mar 2023
     9:57pm

    That 812 GTS would be on my lottery list. Fabulous thing. An F12 while you’re waiting, what a chore!

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    Richard Gotch
    29 Mar 2023
     6:18am

    Correlation or causation? There are companies that enjoyed a huge sales boost at the same time as motorsport success – Subaru with the Impreza, Audi with the original Quatro – but they also had brilliant marketing and treated motorsport as an integrated part of that marketing. Lancia had equal success with the Integrale but totally failed to exploit it; we know where that went, especially here in the UK.

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