Supercar Market: The McLarens – July 2023

Last week I posted up an article on the Supercar Market, the macro situation and covered a number of different models (Supercar Market Update).  There were multiple requests coming out of that article for a point of view on other McLaren models.  While I have done a few updates on our McLaren ownership experience (Our McLaren’s 2022 Update), this will be the first time I have written a piece solely on the McLaren market.

The Hypercars

McLaren P1 (Launched 2014, List Price $1.35 mil.)

Prices on the McLaren P1 have been very stable for about the last 18 months.  The early COVID bargains, where a few changed hands for under $1 mil. are long gone.  I am still kicking myself for passing on a silver P1 back in early 2021 that was listed for $1.2 mil. because I thought the spec was boring and looked to have been done by a frugal accountant.  P1s have moved up from an early Covid lows of $900k and now sit in the $1.5-2 mil. range. Where prices go from here will be very interesting to watch.  I expect the P1 successor to be announced in the next 12-18 months.  What this does to P1 values will be interesting to see but at least initially I doubt it will have a positive effect.  As the P1 approaches its 10th birthday, the tech it is crammed full of, is falling into the ever growing maintenance costs category as it ages.  When annual service bills start approaching the cost of a nice used McLaren 650S it will have an impact.  These are also not cars you can just park in a warehouse and forget.  They need to be constantly on life support (i.e battery chargers, which was also a key reason we sold ours (P1 Farewell) and do much better when used regularly than if they sit.

McLaren Senna (Launched 2018, List Price $960k)

The Senna was the first of three hypercars that McLaren pushed out the door rather rapidly in 2018-2021.  It was followed by the Speedtail and then finally the Elva.  Of the three, the Senna is the only one we have owned (Our Senna). Officially only 500 Sennas were built but that does not include prototypes plus a few other limited and track only editions.  Like the Ferrari F50, it was denigrated for its design initially, but it is aging well. After an initial dip down to $700k, the Senna peaked at $1.6 mil. before settling down in the $1.1mil. -1.5 mil. range today depending on spec and mileage.  I expect these prices will be stable over the next 12-18 months before starting to appreciate again.  Unlike the P1, the Senna comes with far more reasonable maintenance costs which should help support their values long term. 

McLaren Speedtail (Launched 2020, List Price $2.25 mil.)

The Speedtail in many ways is the forgotten hypercar.  To match the McLaren F1’s build number, 106 Speedtails were produced during its short production run.  It’s one of two cars in this list that I haven’t driven.  Deliveries started during the height of Covid and it never really generated much hype.  Unlike the Senna which came with a very clear use case, the Speedtail’s never has been that clear for us.  As a result, values have never really exceeded the original list price and today sit in $2-2.3 mil. range although asking prices at official dealers tend to be much higher.  In the last 12 months, four Speedtails have gone across the auction block.  Only one of the four sold and it was for $2.3 mil.  The other three were no sales at $2.4 mil. – $2.5 mil.  The fact that all the US Speedtails are here under “Show & Display” approval doesn’t help values on the west side of the Atlantic as you need National Highway Traffic Safety Administration approval for each transfer of ownership.

McLaren Elva (Launched 2021, List Price $1.7 mil.)

Elvas are an interesting case.  To start, they had a rather difficult “birth” with production numbers being cut twice before settling at 149 units.  I had the pleasure of spending a very enjoyable, and fortunately sunny, day in an Elva a couple of years ago (Day with the Elva) and I will admit to having a soft spot for them ever since.  Long term, the low production numbers should help values, but this could take a decade or longer before it plays out.  In terms of values today, it is very hard to peg.  List price was $1.7 mil. but by ticking a few boxes on the option list, you could easily be in for north of $2 mil. by the time it landed in your garage.  Six Elvas have gone across the auction block in the last 2 years and not a single one of them was sold.  High bids on each ranged from a low of $1.3 mil. to a high of $2.1 mil. In addition, there are 12 Elvas currently listed for sale on Autotrader in the US.  It’s an extraordinary high number when you consider that roughly only 70-80 Elvas were originally sold in the US. Most do not have prices listed but the few that do are right around $2 mil. 

The Supercars

McLaren 12C (Launched 2011, List Price $230k)

The McLaren 12C was McLaren Automotive’s first production car when it was launched in 2011.  The 12C was built on a carbon fiber tub and powered by a 3.8 L twin-turbo 616 bph V8 engine.  Performance at launch was best in class.  The 12C can do 0-60 mph in 2.8 seconds and top speed is well over 200 mph. 

The 12C market today sits in the $100k – $130k range.  Early 2012 12C’s tend to be at the bottom end of the band with late, 2014s commanding a bit of a premium. Having owned one of each (Our McLaren History) , it’s well worth paying a bit of a premium for a late build.   For the money, you will be getting a car that not only outperformed everything in its class when launched, but could still keep pace with a 2019 Ferrari F8 up to 60 mph.  Spiders command a slight premium over the coupes but lose next to nothing in terms of performance due to the carbon fiber tub. In terms of performance vs. cost, the 12C has to be one the better bargains on the market right now. 

McLaren 650S (Launched 2015, List Price $270k)

The McLaren 650S Spider was the interim model between the 12C and 720S.  The 650S addressed a number of the perceived shortcomings of the 12C and is a better car in a large number of small ways.  Power was increased in the 650S to 641 bhp, shift times reduced, and aerodynamics improved.  About 25% of the parts were new vs. the 12C.  I used one as my daily driver for six years and can’t recommend it highly enough ( 650S Spider Daily Driver ).  The 650S Spider still has a place in our garage and Mrs. SSO uses it on a regular basis these days.  It has huge amounts of performance, beautifully weighted steering, and the best suspension in its class.  Prices on 650S start at $120k for a high mileage coupe and go up to $180k for a low mileage Spider at an official McLaren dealer.  650S prices have taken a bit of a dip in the last 12 months but look to be stable now as they approach the tail end of the depreciation curve.  It is a huge amount of car for the money.

McLaren 675LT (Launched 2016, List Price $350k)

In many ways, I believe the 675 LT is the best, most complete, car McLaren Automotive has produced (675LT Spider)   It simply does everything brilliantly. We have had ours from new and it still puts a huge smile on my face every time I drive it.  Build quality is outstanding and we have never had a single issue with ours. McLaren built five hundred 675LT coupes plus an additional five hundred 675 LT Spiders which makes the 675LT rarer than the 365 GTB/4 Daytona, F40, and Carrera GT.  With values today starting around $250k for coupes and topping out at $350k for a highly optioned low mileage Spider.  Prices are up considerably in the last several years and likely to continue rising as the 675LT is starting to develop a hard core cult following.  Even with the recent increases, I still believe this is the 675LT is the best bargain in the market right now.

McLaren 720S (Launched 2017, List Price $285k)

The 2017 McLaren 720S was the 1st all new McLaren supercar since the 12C was introduced back in 2011. If the 12C/650S were a bit of an unwelcome competitive annoyance to Ferrari, it was the arrival of the 720S that really got their attention.  Not only did the 720S best the Ferrari 488 across the board in terms of performance, it still was an even match for the limited edition Ferrari 488 Pista which Ferrari launched a year later.  Like most supercars, early 720S’ tended to have a few issues but those hopefully will have been long sorted by now.  Early 720S’ will be nearing the long shallow tail of the depreciation curve and $200k is the entry point for a high mileage coupe.  Given where McLaren 650S’ sit these days, I would imagine the long term bottom of the 720S market will be in the $180k-$200k range.  720S values did get a bit of a boost during COVID but most of those gains have been given back by now.  For a bit north of $250k you should be able to find a well maintained low mileage Spider (McLaren 720S Coupe vs Spider) at an official McLaren dealer.    

McLaren 765LT (Launched 2021, List Price $370k)

The 765LT had a very tough act to follow in the 675LT, following greatness is never easy.  Just ask Justin Trudeau.  Early reviews were mixed but I attribute that more to some of the reviewer’s abilities, and not the cars.  We have had ours for a little over a year (McLaren 765LT Spider) and McLaren has definitely delivered a worthy successor.  The 765LT, probably more than any other McLaren, benefitted from a COVID spike in values with some cars changing hands quickly after delivery for over $700k.  Over the 3 year production run, McLaren officially built 765 coupes and 765 spiders.  The market has now settled a bit and early 765LT coupes are now $430k-$450k cars with later Spiders starting at $100k more.  I would expect values to soften a bit more before rebounding as there is nothing else near this price point with similar levels of performance. 

The Special Sportscars

McLaren 600LT (Launched 2018, List Price $240k)

The second car to carry the LT badge was the 600 LT, based on the 570S sportscar.  The coupe version was introduced in June 2018 with the Spider following 6 months later.  The 600 LT is the only LT not to have been a limited production run and McLaren produced as many as they believed (hoped) they could sell.  We spent a few days with one shortly after they were launched (McLaren 600 LT).  Over production left 600 LTs sitting in dealer warehouses much longer than expected and this impacted values early on.  Today there is no difference in the price between a coupe and the Spider with high mileage 600 LTs starting at $200k and $240k should land you about the best on the market from an official McLaren dealer.  Longer term I would expect 600LT values will follow the 675LT with a gap of about $50k-75k for similar spec cars.

McLaren 620R (Launched 2021, List Price $300k)

The 620R was the last model created off of the 570 sport series base.  It is the most “hard core and track oriented” of the line.  Originally 350 were supposed to have been produced, but similar to the situation with the Elva, that number was cut to 225 when demand did not materialize.  The 620 R is the other car on this list that I have not driven.  The original list price was a quite ambitious $300k, up $60k vs, the 600LT.  Only two 620R have been sold at auction.  One was a highly spec’ed delivery mileage car and it went for $300k.  The second had 1,500 miles on it and sold for $250k in Dec 2022.  Autotrader had 5 listed for sale currently and all fall in between these two numbers.  Long term, I would expect the 620R to continue to command a slight premium over the 600LT, given the much lower production numbers.

Summary

Very similar to the supercar market overall, the McLaren market, after correcting a bit in 2022, has largely held stable.  With McLaren production still highly constrained, I would expect this level of overall stability to remain for the quite some time.  However, given the high levels of depreciation on the base models pre COVID, a McLaren 12C or 650S still represent a huge bargain vs. the comparable Ferrari 458 or 488.  The same holds for the 720S vs. the F8 and the P1 vs. the La Ferrari.  Whether these gaps remain long term will be very interesting to see, and I expect it will be influenced by how the next generation of supercars are perceived.

 

 

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July 2023

 

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2 Thoughts on Supercar Market: The McLarens – July 2023
    Tom Unden
    20 Jul 2023
     5:31am

    Great analysis! It will be interesting to see where the P1 goes. It’s my favorite of the holy trinity but I’d be a worried owner after reading your blogs on the battery. I spoke to an owner last year who needed a replacement but luckily it was still under warranty. I think he said it was over $100K otherwise? Long term, I believe the 675 LT and 458 Speciale will be icons (guess they already are) and be north of $500K. The 458 is already there but I don’t believe they will keep heading north and the 675 will close the gap. The Senna also has a good chance of heading north since it was like nothing else on the market when released and I suppose the Valkarie is the only similar production car since but may be too extreme resulting in massive bills once the warranty expires.

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