Ferrari vs. Aston Martin: Truly Competitors?
November 20, 2023
Q3 Earnings Expectations: Aston Martin, Ferrari, McLaren Plus a Few Words on GMA & Praga
I thought I would share a few thoughts on the upcoming Q3 earnings expectations ahead of the upcoming releases. More in-depth analysis will follow post the earnings calls. Also, I have a few new observations on GMA & Praga that I thought would be worthy of sharing after recent discussions with both.
Q3 Earning Call Season
Aston Martin Lagonda
Q3 Earnings call season kicks off on Nov 1st when Aston Martin releases their Q3 results. At the beginning of 2023, AML was promising strong 2nd half growth along with positive free cash flow (FCF). Given FCF was a -£218 mil. in the 1st half, turning that into a positive number would be a monumental achievement. In terms of growth, the numbers do look very ambitious. Taking into account that the Americas are AML’s largest region at 48% of wholesales and I’ve been led to believe that AML is again looking for a new President for the Region, it doesn’t bode well. This level of turnover at a very senior level is normally not a sign that the business is booming. Both of the last two incumbents lasted less than a year in the role, giving the position a similar level of stability to the US Speaker of the House, UK Prime Minister, Trump lead defense attorney, or spouse to Henry VIII. As a benchmark, the Regional President for Ferrari North America has been in position for 6 years. I will be also interested to see if this is the quarter that Stroll finally drops the claim that AML only builds cars to order as the rather larger mountain of DBXs sitting at US dealership would appear to indicate that really isn’t the case.
Ferrari
Ferrari will be reporting their Q3 earnings on Nov 2nd. In Q2, Ferrari raised its Guidance for 2023 on the back of a strong product mix and increased personalization. With both 296 GTS & Purosangue deliveries ramping up in the 2nd half of 2023, the increased guidance looks quite achievable. From what I have heard, so far the increase in interest rates has had little to no effect on the order book which still stretches well into the future.
McLaren
McLaren is the last of the three to report Q3 earnings but will not do so until Nov 29th. I expect volumes to be soft on the back of the announcement in July that North American Artura deliveries had been temporarily slowed for enhanced quality control. From what I understand, the slow down has now been lifted. With the Artura volumes increasing and 750S deliveries starting, I expect Q4 will be closer to what we can expect in terms of McLaren’s quarterly run rate going forward. Hopefully there will also be additional news on the recapitalization shortly.
Gordon Murray Automotive (GMA)
I recently had the opportunity to spend a bit of time with a couple of the key GMA Team Members and take a look at the T.50 in detail. In a word, the T.50 is truly spectacular. The craftsmanship, packaging, and attention to detail is extraordinary. In a world where cars have become consistently bigger and heavier, the T.50 is a throwback. Its compact, light, and just looks agile. The focus on weight savings is borderline psychotic and the results are hugely impressive. No detail is too small to be challenged and improved upon. The fact that it comes with a manual 6 speed gearbox and naturally aspirated V12 engine just make it that much more desirable. Production has now officially started on the T.50 and the first customer delivery happened recently in Monterey with more to follow in November. That makes it basically 3 years from the model’s first unveiling to first delivery. GMA have provided public progress updates frequently, opened their factory doors to leading journalists, run the cars at major events without any issues, and been quite conservative when it comes to their performance claims. Talking to a few of GMA’s depositors, they all seem very happy with the process and feel as if they have been kept closely in the loop in terms of the T.50s development. Using Dario Franchitti as a spokesman and development driver has worked brilliantly as he’s not only engaging and charismatic, but also brings another level of credibility to the endeavor.
GMAs second model, the T.33, sold out instantly and most of the 100 units of the third model, the T.33 Spider already have homes. Both appear to be on track in terms of development. GMA is in the process of building a new Headquarters and Production facility in the UK with Phase 1 completed a year ago. The T.50 is being built at GMA’s current location with the T.33 and future models to be produced at the new site. The T.50 will be imported into the US under “Show & Display” rules for which GMA already has approval. Both the T.33 models will be fully homologated.
In terms of what then comes next for GMA, they are incredibly tight lipped. The only piece of information I was able to pry out was future models will likely also be based on the Cosworth V12.
Praga Bohema
I sat down recently to discuss the Bohema and its development with Praga’s head of Sales and Marketing. Like GMA, Praga is making good, consistent progress on delivering its first hypercar, the Praga Bohema. The Bohema is based on an all new carbon fiber tub and is powered by a Nissan supplied 3.8-liter twin-turbo V-6 producing 700 bhp. Dry weight is 2164 lbs which makes a few of its competitors look quite tubby. Praga recently showed the Bohema at the Goodwood Festival of Speed and at a few other private supercar events in the UK & EU including most recently at the Red Bull Ring. The fact that Praga has done not only passenger rides for depositors but also successfully completed a series of press test drives shows the huge amount of confidence Praga has in the Bohema.
The production run is limited to 89 units over a four year period at about €1.36 million each. Customer deliveries are on target to start in early 2024. Of the 89 cars, it’s expected that 24 cars will go to UK/Europe; 26 to The Americas; 24 to Asia/Pacific and 15 to Middle East/Africa. The Bohema is already road legal in the UK and is due to receive certification in the EU shortly. US imports are expected to be done under “Show & Display”. If all goes well, hopefully we will see Praga and the Bohema in Monterey next August.
Summary
In terms of Q3 earnings, I doubt there will be any major surprises. The numbers I am most interested in seeing are AML’s Free Cash Flow, Ferrari’s Revenue Growth, & McLaren’s Wholesales. GMA and Praga are making great progress on getting cars into customers hands. Both of these are led by highly successful teams with extensive backgrounds in racing, deep connections in the industry, & decades of experience in the supercar arena. They both have a very clear idea of the experience they are looking to deliver and a single minded focus on achieving that goal, and it shows.
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October 2023
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As always, excellent analysis and insight. Love reading your updates and the blog. Thanks so much!
I am also closely followinig AML’s debt levels on results day. Let’s see how much of the last cash raise was used to pay off debt, and how much was burned almost immediately.
What on earth did Aston Martin do to hack you off? Constant and repeated diatribes against this company whilst bigging up Ferrari at every opportunity?
It is pretty boring and a shame as your blogs have great layouts but fall down when actually read.
I’m sure this wont be posted so I’ll take a screen shot for posterity!!!
AML will be interesting because the best compliments to the new DB12 is that it’s “ok”. After how many attempts Marek Reichman has finally delivered a car that people think is “ok”. Callum did beautiful in one with the DB7, Reichman I can’t count how many attempts as I’m out of fingers.
Has the DB12 found a market?
But the share price is what I’ve found interesting this year. Once Alonso surprised us with his performance in F1 with a much improved car that Vettel sadly never got a chance to drive, the share price started to rise. But the F1 team is a separate entity to the automotive company. There’s no material connection, and even revenues flow in the wrong direction with the automotive company *paying* the F1 team to use its name and branding! It’s crazy. Alas, once the fairy tail was over and Alonso’s performance dropped off, the shares started to fall again.
What effect will the quarterly results have on the share price? It will be revealing to see if investors are confusing F1 team for the automotive company!
Ferrari are going to go from strength to strength. The GTC4Lusso is commanding huge prices on the used market apparently, which is surprising as it was one people never liked to admit a desire for, but Purosangue now seems to have acceptance it never had. It’s opening up a whole new series of orders.
McLaren focusing on quality will never hurt them long term.
GMA with Gordon Murray will deliver. They’ve got a confidence you rarely see, one backed up with results. And transparency in what they’re trying to do via their Dario YouTube videos. Customers have faith in the company when they sell out instantly with any new model.
The one to watch is of course AML. What form will the next rescue package take? And will it finally have the golden parachute that they need to give to Marek Reichman to get rid of him? After all, to save Aston Martin you first need to sack Marek Reichman.