Supercar Market Insights & Analysis – Feb 2024

Since the last Supercar Market update in Nov 2023, the world is no saner.  There are two wars raging with the surrounding areas continuing to look highly volatile.   A clear plan to resolve either situation remains highly elusive.  In the “who would have ever thought” category, Taylor Swift is now the face of the NFL and Lewis Hamilton will be driving for Ferrari in 2025.  I doubt Hamilton’s stay in Maranello will be any more rewarding than it was for either Vettel or Alonso.  It will be interesting to see if Hamilton continues to follow in Vettel and Alonso’s footsteps and after a couple of frustrating years at Ferrari, he eventually ends up closing out his career at Aston Martin. 

The Macro Situation

Money is now very expensive and is very likely to remain so for at least the next several months.  Mortgage rates in the US are down very slightly but still at their highest levels this century.  Credit card balances in the US have now increased 8 quarters in a row and grew by $154 bil. in the last 12 months.  Auto loan delinquencies are now well above pre-COVID levels and expected to peak in 2024 at around 10%.  On a more positive note, according to the IMF, US GDP is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2024 after delivering a higher than expected 2.5% in 2023. These are both still above the FEDs targeted non-inflationary growth rate of 1.8% so interest rate cuts don’t seem imminent.  The same GDP growth rate numbers for the UK are 0.5% in 2023 and the same expected for 2024.  As a reference, EU GDP grew 0.5% in 2023 and is expected to increase to 1.3% in 2024.  The UK Bank (Interest) Rate is currently 5.25% and is unlikely to decline until late this year. This combination of higher UK interest rates and lower growth is creating a pricing gap between the US & UK supercar markets on certain models.

In the political sphere, in the US in a recent poll 67% of the population would prefer a different set of candidates vs. the two (Biden & Trump) currently likely to be their party’s nominee.  Both Biden and Trump are older than the last three (Obama, Bush, & Clinton) former Presidents.  Mandatory retirement age for commercial airline pilots is 65.  Both candidates are more than a decade over this.  If you are deemed to be too old to fly a commercial jet, should you really be allowed to have your finger on the nuclear button?   Even more bizarrely, while Trump would appear to have the Republican Party nomination almost all sewed up, it’s Nikki Haley, who is well behind Trump in the Republican primaries, who polls significantly better in a head to head race vs. Biden.  Net net, the Republicans are mostly likely to nominate the weaker candidate for the US Presidential election.  Should Trump win, he has promised to be a dictator, but “only on day 1”.  The UK will also have a general election this year.  Based on current poll’s the current Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, has only a slightly better chance of keeping his job than Prince Andrew has of being reinstated as a working royal. 

Inflation in the US has cooled with December 2023 coming in at 3.3%, still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.  The stock market recovered nicely in 2023, wiping out 2022’s rather horrific losses.  After hitting parity to the $ back in late 2022, the € has stabilized and now sits at €1 = $1.08 and has been quite stable in a $1.06 – $1.12 range for the last year.  The British £ seems to be locked into a $1.20-$1.30 trading range long term now and currently sits at $1.26 = £1.  The £ is still well off its pre-Brexit levels and I can’t see getting anywhere near the more normal historic $1.60-$1.70 range without a major structural change.  I have a few UK based friends that are predicting that the UK will eventually return to the EU. That is likely what’s needed for the £ to significantly appreciate.  After an extended mud throwing session, the US and China have finally cooled down the rhetoric.  It’s now been a few months since I have seen any articles on a potential invasion of Taiwan.  Putin’s mad foray into the Ukraine is looking more and more like it will drag on for years.  The harsh reality is this is probably in NATO’s best interest as having the Russian army tied up and being ground down in Ukraine keeps it from creating trouble elsewhere. 

Instead of going through a methodical analysis of different parts of the Supercar market, as there are plenty of better informed people who already do that, I thought it might be more interesting to layout a few things that have caught my attention.

The Modern Era (2010 ->)

The Hypercar Trinity

Prices on the 2013/2014 Hypercar Trinity, which include the oddly named Ferrari LaFerrari, the McLaren P1, and the Porsche 918 have been very stable through 2022 with not a lot of cars changing hands, at least publicly.  LaFerraris now sit squarely in the $2-$4 mil. range depending on spec and mileage with the higher number being achieved by LaFerraris that have sadly never felt a leaf, rock, or pothole under their tires. The last two to hit the auction block were both low mileage car, neither car hit the low estimate, and both were no sales.  The number of LaFerraris coming into the market in the last 12 months has dropped off rather substantially.  Rumors that one of the requirements for obtaining a build slot for the successor might be current ownership of a LaFerrari would certainly put a damper on the market.  Both McLaren P1s and Porsche 918s moved up from early Covid lows of $800k-900k.  918s now sit in the $1.4-$1.46 mil. range which is up by about $200k from early 2023 but on par with 2022..  P1s are a bit of a different story.  Four P1s have been sold at auction in the last 3 months.  None hit the low estimate but were hammered sold.  Two of the cars went for right around $1 mil., 1 for $1.24 mil. and the final one hit $1.9 mil.  The difference between the 4 cars, location, and mileage.  The $1.9 mil. P1 was a US spec car and had under 3k miles on it.  The others were all EU spec and over 5k miles.  Where P1 prices go from here will be very interesting to watch but the market seems to be bifurcating dramatically between garage queen museum pieces and drivers with US spec cars demanding a slight premium which is unlikely to last.  I expect the next generation of Hypercars to be announced by at least one of the three manufacturers in 2024, with the others following in 2025.  What this does to the values on the last generation will be interesting to see but at least initially I doubt it will have a positive effect. The LaFerrari is a possible exception if Ferrari makes current LaFerrari ownership one of the critical criteria for getting an allocation of its next Hypercar.  All of these models are falling into the exploding maintenance costs category as their hybrid technology ages.  When annual service bills start approaching the cost of a nice used Ferrari 458, McLaren 650S, or 911 Turbo, it will have an impact.  These are also not cars you can just park in a warehouse and forget.  They need to be constantly on life support (i.e battery chargers) and do much better when used regularly than when they sit.  The irony is the ones that sit, are the ones most highly valued by the market. 

And a brief word on the McLaren Speedtail

Speedtails are an interesting case.  To start, its positioning is a bit of a convoluted mess, about on par with the French battle plan at Agincourt.  The Project BP23 (which became the Speedtail) started life conceptually as modern version of the F1.  Somehow along the way that got interpreted as meaning it had to have a higher top speed. I understand this was very much driven by the former CEO.   Lightness, agility, and usability all seemed to have gotten pushed aside in a myopic lust for a higher terminal velocity.  The net result was a highly complex hybrid, that’s 3 ft longer than the original, 1,000 lbs heavier, has 422 bhp more, but is only 7 mph faster in a straight line.  Given its far more compact size and weight, the earlier car would like murder the Speedtail around any track.  Like the original McLaren F1, only 106 were produced and longer term the low production numbers should help values, but this could take a decade or longer before it plays out.  In terms of values today, you are catching a falling knife.  In the last two years at auction, Speedtails have gone from a high sale of $3 mil. in Jan 2022 to the most recent sale of $1.83 mil. in Jan 2024. It’s been an almost straight line south between these two sales.  Putting additional pressure on values, of the 10 Speedtails that have come up for auction in the last 2 years, 5 were no sales and several of these cars appeared at multiple different auctions at ever decreasing high bids.   Unlike the P1 or Senna, the Speedtail is just not a car that creates any love or excitement in the collectors/enthusiast community right now. 

The Gen 2 Ford GT: Holding Steady…..just don’t drive it

Ford’s stated goal when they launched the Gen 2 Ford GT in 2015 was to sell only to owners who would drive their cars.  Today it’s nearly impossible to find a major auction where at least one Gen 2 Ford GT isn’t in the catalog.   Of the Ford GTs that have been hammered sold in the last year, over half had less than 50 miles on the odometer.  Clearly Ford did about as good of a job selecting Ford GT customers who would drive the cars as Liz Truss did on choosing a Chancellor of the Exchequer or John McCain did on choosing a running mate in 2008.  Almost all Gen 2 Ford GT’s have odometers indicating that new tires will not be needed any time in the near future, values have held very steady over the last several years and are still well over the original list price.  The two high sales in the last year were both at $1.25 mil. for cars with delivery miles and the low sales were around $800k for cars that had been ever so slightly used. This is about on par with 2022 results.  It’s one market that I really can’t make any sense of.  With 1,350 built, the Gen 2 Ford GT isn’t exact rare, and looking at the basic performance stats a rarer 2015 McLaren 675LT would leave it in its rear-view mirror. 

The Ferrari V12 GTs: Still Depreciation Champs?

I have been following the Ferrari F12 and 812 market fairly closely for over 2 years now.  Adding a Prancing Horse badged V12 GT to the garage has been high on my list for quite some time, but I am not in a rush and refuse to pay a premium for a car that has traditionally been the depreciation champion of the Ferrari line up.  The number of F12s on the market is consistent with 6 months ago but twice the number of 12 months ago.  Today there are 16 F12s on the US Ferrari preowned website ranging in price from $230k to $295k and 48 on Autotrader starting at $190k.  Prices on F12s look like they have dropped by at least $40k in the last year but have been stable for the last 3 months.  Longer term I would guess F12s will settle in the $180k-$250k range depending on spec and mileage.   Over the last 6 months, it’s the 812 that has dropped almost as fast as Ron DeSantis’ campaign for President.  For the 812, inventories are substantially higher today vs. a year ago with a hefty 38 812s on the US Ferrari preowned website ranging in price from $316k to $410k and 74 listed on Autotrader.  I expect we will see the first 812 listed on the US Ferrari preowned website below $300k shortly.  This should push the over ambitiously priced F12s down towards that long term $180k-$250k range.  Ten years down the road, I would not be surprised to see F12s trading at higher values than 812s.

Aston Martin Vanquish Gen 2 2012-2018: The V12 Bargain Buy?

The 2nd generation 2012-2018 Vanquish was basically an evolution of the DBS.  The Vanquish is built off the same platform with a few styling cues swiped off the One-77.  The Gen 2 Vanquish was only sold with an automatic gearbox.  Early models came with a 6 speed autobox with later (mid 2014-2018) switching to a much improved 8 speed ZF automatic.  A further update with increased horsepower and revised aerodynamics was delivered in 2017 with the cars now being badged Vanquish S.  Today you can find higher mileage coupes starting at $70k with Volante’s starting at $93k.  The later “S” models of both have dropped by $40k in the last 8 months to $160k.  The low end of the market has dropped by $20k in the last 8 months and post 2014 Volante’s are down by $30-40k.  The later model Vanquish and Vanquish S’ are still depreciating, and probably have another $50k to go before they flatten out.  With 46 listed for sale on Autotrader plus an additional 7 on the Aston Martin Preowned USA site right now, it is a buyer’s market with cars sitting for extended periods.  For example, there is one 2015 Vanquish Carbon Edition Volante that has been sitting at the official Aston Martin dealer on Long Island for close to a year now.  Its price has drifted south slowly but clearly not enough to move it off the showroom floor.  Eight months ago, there seemed to be a $20-30k spread between similar cars listed on independent dealerships vs. at official Aston Martin dealerships.  That spread has now basically disappeared which probably reflects the fact that cars are sitting on the market for extended periods.  Recent decreases in values points to a more stable market going forward.  At 60% of the cost of a compatible Ferrari F12, the Vanquish is an intriguing option.

The Classics (90’s & 00’s)

The Ferraris: A bit of a mixed bag.….

F50s have risen from just under $2 mil. in 2019 to topping out at $4.9 mil. in Dec 2022.  The march up has been very consistent until 2023.  Since then, the market has stalled with the last one going for a more modest $3.9 mil.  Ferrari Enzos on the other hand have been trading in the $2 – $3 mil. range depending on color and mileage for most of the last decade.  In 2023, on fairly thin data, it looks like they might have taken a bit of a step up to be more in the $3 – $4 mil. range with the last sale of a very low mileage Enzo crossing the $4 mil. line for the first time.  It’s clear that at least several owners think that is about the top of the market.  In 2023 you had 4 Enzos show up at auctions, and in 2024 there have already been 3.  Of the 3, two sold, one for $4 mil. and the other for $3.7 mil.  While the F50 has aged brilliantly and it is as engaging and rewarding to drive today as it was 25 years ago, the Enzo and its first generation F1 gearbox has aged about as well as the New York Jets decision to pick Zack Wilson in the 1st round of the 2021 NFL draft.

The 430 Scuderia is another Ferrari that has aged well with prices in the US rising from $180k in 2019 to almost twice that for a similar car today.  The final generation F1 gearbox in the 430 Scuderia is a joy to use and has aged well.  In fact, I would rate the 430 Scuderia as the best of all the 2000-2010 Ferrari models.  While prices of 430 Scuderia have jumped in the US, they have only risen slightly in the UK and the gap today between the two markets is quite significant. 

Probably the biggest head scratcher in recent history is the huge jump in values on the Ferrari F355 GTS in 2023 that seems to be finally cooling.  The F355 GTS went from $70k a couple of years ago to an insane high sale at $307k for a Euro F355 GTS 6 speed in June 2023.  The last two F355 GTS sales I could find were in the $130k-$150k range which at least is a partial return back towards sanity.   What is hard to understand though is why the GTS commands a $50-70 premium over F355 Spiders.  The F355 GTS was the first Ferrari I owned and of the three F355 variants (Berlinetta, GTS, Spider) I would have put it squarely at the bottom of the pile.  Leaky roof panels, vague steering, and with the reliability of a coked up supermodel, it just doesn’t have that much charm. 

Porsche Carrera GT: Poster Child

Now this is an interesting one.  Since April 2023, the Carrera GT has been under a stop use order from Porsche due to the risk of a potential catastrophic suspension failure.   Porsche has indicated that the replacement parts will not be available until the 3rd Quarter of 2024.  Essentially this has turned all Carrera GTs into nothing more than garage art for almost a year now.  So far thought, it hasn’t impacted the Carrera GT market as 2023 values were very much on par with 2022 and the two sold so far in 2024 went for $1.7 mil. & $1.1 mil.  Apparently being able to actually drive the car isn’t a ky criteria for current Carrera GT buyers.  Longer term it looks like Carrera GTs are now $900k-$1.7 mil. depend on color and how much of their life they have spent under a car cover. 

Vintage (60’s – 80’s)

70’s Ferrari Fiberglass

Ever since I owned a Ferrari 308 GTB “Vetroresina” well over a decade and a half ago, I have always been intrigued by them.  These are the 1st generation Ferrari 308 GTBs produced in 1975-77 with fiberglass bodies.  Just over 800 were produced, making them rarer than either a similar era Ferrari Daytona or a Ferrari 512 BB.  For the better part of the last decade these “glass” 308s have commanded over a 100% premium vs. the far more common steel bodied 308s.  In the Covid era, they have traded hands remarkably consistently in the $150k range up through 2021.  Values have declined consistently since then with the last 308 GTB “Vetroresina” to cross the auction block in early Feb 2024 ending up as a “no-sales” at a high bid of $102k.   With steel 308 GTBs now looking like they are back to being $50k-$60k cars now, $100k for a 308 GTB “Vetroresina” seems about right.

Vintage Ferraris (the 60’s)

If you look at the longer-term trends on a few of the better known of the 60’s Ferrari models, the direction does seem quite clear at this point.  The Ferrari 365 GTB/4 Daytona’s sits near the bottom of the Vintage 2 seat GT pecking order and they are now rock steady in the $480-$600k range with 13 of the last 14 sales landing there.  With over 1,200 built, they are by far the most common of the Vintage Ferrari V12 GTs which is likely to help keep prices where they are today over the longer term.  The hype a few years ago that Daytona’s were about to become $1 mil. cars has aged about as well as a book by a certain British Prince.  Ferrari 275 GTB’s look to be $1.8 mil. to $3 mil depending on length of nose and number of carburetors.  The slide in 275 GTB’s has ended, and prices have now been stable for over 2 years.  One thing I have noticed is the quality of the 275’s coming onto the market has improved during this period.  The Ferrari 250 Lusso is on a similar track to the 275 GTB.  Back in 2015 they were $2 mil. cars and now $1.2-$1.5 mil. is where the market sits.  The most recent sale at auction was for $1.2 mil. for an older restoration that has spent most of the last 40 years sitting in a garage.  Values on earlier 250 GT Coupes are still sliding south.  A good example of this is a 1958 250 GT “Ellena” sold in Monterey in August 2023 for $1.1 mil but was a “no-sale” in Arizona in January 2024 with a high bid of $870k.  250 GT Pinin Farina’s are now consistently $350k cars vs. $500k a few years back.  Demographic shifts will continue to put pressure on the older cars with the less valuable or well known models taking the hit first.  These Vintage Ferraris are less appealing to the younger generation of enthusiasts who did not grow up with them on their bedroom walls.  These are also all cars that take real skill to drive and punish mistakes with massive repair bills with a high potential for broken bones. 

Summary

As of February 2024, we have a supercar market that has corrected to a large extend for the vintage cars but is in decline on many of the most recent modern models.  Interest rates have likely peaked, but a lot of the pain from that peak is still to come.  Those models that exploded in value during the Covid era have to a large extent come back to earth.  The Hypercar bubble is history, the latest ones launched are at best holding value.  With the next generation of hypercars from Ferrari, McLaren, and possibly Porsche expected in the coming years, the Hypercar market is likely to undergo a reset again.  Demographic shifts, as the percentage of the population that knows how to drive a manual car continues to decline, will likely continue to put pressure on the vintage market over the coming years.  However, if you have the cash, the coming year should provide some good buying opportunities.

 

Thoughts and comments? Please see the comments section below.

The sign up for new blog email notifications is at the bottom of the page.

Follow us on

Share Now

 

February 2024

 

Recent Posts

11 Thoughts on Supercar Market Insights & Analysis – Feb 2024
    clay
    5 Feb 2024
     3:11pm

    Great info as always. I think the next 6-7 months , at least in the US , will be interesting with regards to numerous luxury markets

    1
    0
    John
    5 Feb 2024
     6:43pm

    I found a website that had many exotic cars listed from every marque you could pick, and from a wide selection of sellers. Quite a number of Aston Martin Valkyries listed, $2.9-4.4 million asking price. Then there’s the Zagato Vanquishes, $1.4 million for a car that seems exceptionally difficult to sell considering that they’re normally £400k in the UK and don’t shift. A few Vulcans listed too, and One-77s.

    Most expensive on the site is the Lamborghini Veneno at $12.1 million!

    Says a lot more about hope than it does about reality. And the reality is from your account that in general prices are cooling down again.

    Part of me is always happy that these cars fall in value allowing more people to achieve their dream of owning one, although typically not to the point of being able to afford to own one. But with rising prices it kept many others on the road because it was worthwhile keeping them serviced, and restoring them where needed.

    1
    0
    Simon Crossley
    5 Feb 2024
     10:25pm

    Your blog is always a great read. A wonderful combination of timely information, pithy commentary and humorous insight. I always LOL several times. As always, thank you. I’m already looking forward to the next blog, as eagerly as Ralphie on Christmas morning, awaiting his revered, “Official Red Ryder, carbine action, 200-shot, range model air rifle, with a compass in the stock and this thing that tells time.”

    2
    0
    Jonathon Minoli
    6 Feb 2024
     1:18pm

    A good read

    1
    0
    Steve Hewett
    7 Feb 2024
     12:43am

    Enjoyed you article.

    I see you are still looking for a V12 Ferrari. Here in the uk they seem to be static. Though l’m like you on low miles it really puts me off.

    A car that is used regularly , serviced properly and has new tyres when they get to 3mm.

    0
    0
    serge
    31 Mar 2024
     8:16am

    812 Gts i really enjoy driving do you think they well take huge hit?

    0
    0

Leave A Comment