End of Term: Porsche 911 (997.2) GT3 RS 

End of Term: Porsche 911 (997.2) GT3 RS 

After 7 years, it was time for our red eared Porsche 911 (997.2) GT3 RS to head to a new home.  The GT3 RS was just the latest victim of our household rule that if you aren’t getting driven regularly, you lose your garage space.  In many ways though, the fact that the GT3 RS lasted 7 years is a testament to just how great a car it is.  If you had asked me how long I expected we would have kept the GT3 RS when it first arrived, I would have guessed around 2 years.  It had a good long run up until 2022.  It was the arrival of the McLaren 765LT Spider that year that first put the GT3 RS’s garage spot in jeopardy.  It’s the likely arrival of the SCG 004S later this year that finally cemented the decision. 

How we ended up with the 911 (997.2) GT3 RS is a bit of a convoluted story.  It really started off with a major misfire on trying to acquire a Porsche Carrera GT.  This was back in June 2014. I had located a 2005  Black/Grey Carrera GT with 8,200 miles at Porsche of Newport Beach in California. We had agreed a price, I had offered to wire over a deposit (which I was told was not necessary) and I was just waiting for them to send over the pre-purchase inspection report before wiring payment. After three days and no signs of the PPI nor any response to my emails, I finally called the salesman back and was told they had sold the Carrera GT to another buyer.  What made it even worse was the dealership manager wasn’t even apologetic about the situation and basically told me to go pound sand.  This basically put me off the Carrera GT option for several years.

 

All of this brings us back to the GT3 RS.  With the CGT out as a short-term option, I started doing a bit of research on the various GT3 variants as I considered that to be the next best thing.  A traditional manual gearbox was a must have which immediately ruled out the later 991.1 series.  I also reached out for input from Nick Trott (former editor of EVO Magazine & MotorSport) who is both a die-hard Porsche fan and has forgotten more about the different 911 models than I will ever know.  Originally, I had settled on 997.1 GT3 but after hearing multiple rave reviews of the 997.2 GT3 RS, I changed directions and decided that the rawer more focused car was a better fit to my personal tastes.  The .2’s also can be optioned with a front axle lift system, which in the area I live, is a necessity. The fact that the 997.2 GT3 RS also won EVO’s car of the year in 2010 didn’t hurt. 

 

From final decision on model to finding the right car happened very quickly.  It was four weeks from search start to deposit placed. I found the car via the Porsche pre-owned vehicle locator while sitting in a ski lodge exhausted at the end of a great day on the slopes.  The GT3 RS had been listed the day before and I immediately placed a call to the dealer, Porsche of Beverly Hills, as soon as I saw the listing.  A quick email exchange on the history of the car followed and the next day, New Year’s Eve, a deposit was placed.  Given the holidays, it took another couple of days to finalize the transaction but by the second week of January the GT3 RS was in route to the first of three different places it would live in our time together..  The positive experience with Porsche’s Beverly Hills dealership could not have been more different from the disappointing mess on the Carrera GT at the Newport Beach dealership. 

 

During the seven years of GT3 RS ownership, we have had several highly memorable trips together.  The first one that comes to mind was a two day trip with my youngest son (aka – Bad Driver) when we drove a pair of Porsches from Dallas, to what would become their new home for several years, to Montana.  Here’s a short summary of that drive:

This year I drove the Porsche 911 (997.2) GT3 RS up while Bad Driver followed in the Porsche Cayenne S.  In effect, these are the two extremes of the Porsche line up.  The quick agile truck and the raw focused track weapon.  Despite having owned the Cayenne S for 3 ½ and the GT3 RS for a year and a half, this was the first major long distant trip for both.  While I had no concerns on how Bad Driver would hold up for 1,600 miles in the Cayenne, I was concerned with the beating I might be setting myself up for in the striped down GT3 RS.  Little to no sound deadening, thinly padded racing buckets, and a suspension designed more for the Nurburgring Ring than the US Interstate Highway system is not a recipe for setting a new standard of comfort.

 

The trip started at 7:00 AM on Thursday morning. The targeted destination for day 1 was just north of Denver, a not insignificant 920 miles away. A further 680 miles would follow on day 2. This year we decided to take the longer way up through Oklahoma and then across via Kansas which would keep us on highways for almost the entire trip.  This routing avoided the back roads and small towns in Texas & Colorado which slowed our progress considerably when we did a similar trip last year in the McLaren 675LT Spider.   We were hoping the early-ish start would allow us to clear the Dallas before rush hour reached its peak and break out onto the open highway where more rapid progress could be made.  Other than one minor accident related traffic jam, the plan worked well and we found ourselves crossing the Oklahoma border in good time.  Our first, of what would be many, fuel stops came shortly afterwards.  While the Cayenne sported a range of 450+ miles, getting 200 miles out of the GT3 RS’s water bottle size tank was about the best we could do.  By the time we stopped for the night, we had toured five gas station forecourts across three states with a further four stops following on day 2.  On the plus side, it did give me the chance to get out of the GT3 RS about every 2 ½ hours to stretch my legs. 

 

As a long-distance tourer, the GT3 RS is survivable.  The seats and driving position are quite comfortable, the controls all well-arranged and intuitive, and the sightlines are excellent.  The lack of sound-deadening coupled with the very firm suspension do cause a fair amount of brain and body damage over extended periods.  While the sounds system is not too bad when stationary, once you get moving a speed it has plenty of competition from the rear of the car.  Passing is almost too easy, drop down 2 gears, a bit of right foot and what was in front will now be firmly in the rearview mirror.  Below 3000 rpms engine grunt is pretty ordinary, north of 4500 rpms the GT3 RS comes very much alive.  This is a car that wants to be pushed hard and really driven.  Cruising is just not its thing.  

 

While day one was basically an uninspiring slog on dead straight concrete highways across the flatlands, day two was significantly more interesting.  Once we crossed into Wyoming, the speed limit increased to 80 mph and the quality of the roads improved dramatically.  While it doesn’t have quite the fun factor of a mountain pass, the 350 miles up through Wyoming are about as good as it gets on a US Interstate.  There is little to no traffic, the road is painted across the hills, and you have the Rocky Mountains to your west.  If there ever was a stretch of highway in the US that an autobahn approach to speed limits should be applied to, it is this.  Needless to say, we made rapid progress and the GT3 RS started to really come into its own.  Crossing into Montana, the roads got even more interesting as the hills grew in size.  For the first time in 1,220 miles, the gearbox started to get more of a work out as we powered up the hills and then down through fairly tight corners.  After another rapidly covered 250 miles, we were finally off the highway and headed up into the mountains.  The final 50 miles were on what is becoming one of my favorite pieces of tarmac in the US.  The two lanes of Route 191 are cut alongside the Gallatin River as it winds through a narrow valley with towering peaks on both sides.  It is challenging, beautiful, and unforgiving if you get it wrong.  As one of the key access routes to Yellowstone National Park, it also gets a fair amount of traffic which needs to be navigated in tight passing zones that are few and far between. 

 

While on the highway, the Cayenne S had little trouble keeping pace with the GT3 RS, however I lost “Bad Driver” almost immediately as soon as we headed into the mountains.  This was not unexpected as his last words to me at our final gas station stop were “I will see you at the house”.  Here the GT3 RS was completely in its element, the brain and body damage of 1,200 miles on the highway were washed away and quickly forgotten.  The more you push it, the better the GT3 RS gets. Hands and feet were plenty busy working the gearbox, navigating the corners, and dispatching slower moving traffic.  As my daily driver is a mid-engined car, the difference in weight distribution on the GT3 RS was quite discernable.  The fact that the engine is hanging off the rear axle is definitely noticeable, as is the more pronounced weight transfer when you mash the middle pedal.  If you want to keep the horizon in front of you, corners are definitely slow in, fast out.

 

After 1600 miles and twice that in dead bugs, we arrived at our destination. Over the course of two days, I finally really bonded with the GT3 RS.  In the last several hundred miles, I really started understanding the depths of its abilities.  Subsequent drives up through the mountains in the days that followed further deepened my appreciation of what Porsche created with the GT3 RS.  It’s a car that is now up in an environment where it can really shine.

As a car to own, from a maintenance cost perspective, the GT3 RS was quite reasonable for a sportscar in its class.  The only major unpleasant surprise came shortly after we acquired the GT3 RS.  It turned out that the power steering line was leaking, which doesn’t sound like a big deal, until you find out that the engine needs to be pulled to change the line.    While not quite as hard on the wallet as pulling an engine on a Ferrari F355, it was still a quite unpleasant surprise.  The rest of the annual services were all in the $800-$1,500 range with the only other significant expense being a set of new tires in early 2023.  Overall GT3 RS ownership was remarkably drama free.

 

I do miss the 911 (997.2) GT3 RS now that it is gone.  It was always such an engaging car to drive.  I loved the raw uncompromised focus of the GT3 RS but at the same time, that also was the cars Achilles heal.  While it was great to take on a blast up a mountain road for an hour or two, it was far too raw to ever get the nod for a weekend road trip with Mrs. SSO.  With it being relegated to a point A to point A car, it really was only a matter of time until its  “Use Case” expired with the result being it just wasn’t getting the regular use it needs over the last year and a bit.  Hopefully it has now found a new home where it will be both appreciated and driven with vigor regularly.

 

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February 2024

 

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Supercar Market Insights & Analysis – Feb 2024

Supercar Market Insights & Analysis – Feb 2024

Since the last Supercar Market update in Nov 2023, the world is no saner.  There are two wars raging with the surrounding areas continuing to look highly volatile.   A clear plan to resolve either situation remains highly elusive.  In the “who would have ever thought” category, Taylor Swift is now the face of the NFL and Lewis Hamilton will be driving for Ferrari in 2025.  I doubt Hamilton’s stay in Maranello will be any more rewarding than it was for either Vettel or Alonso.  It will be interesting to see if Hamilton continues to follow in Vettel and Alonso’s footsteps and after a couple of frustrating years at Ferrari, he eventually ends up closing out his career at Aston Martin. 

The Macro Situation

Money is now very expensive and is very likely to remain so for at least the next several months.  Mortgage rates in the US are down very slightly but still at their highest levels this century.  Credit card balances in the US have now increased 8 quarters in a row and grew by $154 bil. in the last 12 months.  Auto loan delinquencies are now well above pre-COVID levels and expected to peak in 2024 at around 10%.  On a more positive note, according to the IMF, US GDP is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2024 after delivering a higher than expected 2.5% in 2023. These are both still above the FEDs targeted non-inflationary growth rate of 1.8% so interest rate cuts don’t seem imminent.  The same GDP growth rate numbers for the UK are 0.5% in 2023 and the same expected for 2024.  As a reference, EU GDP grew 0.5% in 2023 and is expected to increase to 1.3% in 2024.  The UK Bank (Interest) Rate is currently 5.25% and is unlikely to decline until late this year. This combination of higher UK interest rates and lower growth is creating a pricing gap between the US & UK supercar markets on certain models.

In the political sphere, in the US in a recent poll 67% of the population would prefer a different set of candidates vs. the two (Biden & Trump) currently likely to be their party’s nominee.  Both Biden and Trump are older than the last three (Obama, Bush, & Clinton) former Presidents.  Mandatory retirement age for commercial airline pilots is 65.  Both candidates are more than a decade over this.  If you are deemed to be too old to fly a commercial jet, should you really be allowed to have your finger on the nuclear button?   Even more bizarrely, while Trump would appear to have the Republican Party nomination almost all sewed up, it’s Nikki Haley, who is well behind Trump in the Republican primaries, who polls significantly better in a head to head race vs. Biden.  Net net, the Republicans are mostly likely to nominate the weaker candidate for the US Presidential election.  Should Trump win, he has promised to be a dictator, but “only on day 1”.  The UK will also have a general election this year.  Based on current poll’s the current Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, has only a slightly better chance of keeping his job than Prince Andrew has of being reinstated as a working royal. 

Inflation in the US has cooled with December 2023 coming in at 3.3%, still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.  The stock market recovered nicely in 2023, wiping out 2022’s rather horrific losses.  After hitting parity to the $ back in late 2022, the € has stabilized and now sits at €1 = $1.08 and has been quite stable in a $1.06 – $1.12 range for the last year.  The British £ seems to be locked into a $1.20-$1.30 trading range long term now and currently sits at $1.26 = £1.  The £ is still well off its pre-Brexit levels and I can’t see getting anywhere near the more normal historic $1.60-$1.70 range without a major structural change.  I have a few UK based friends that are predicting that the UK will eventually return to the EU. That is likely what’s needed for the £ to significantly appreciate.  After an extended mud throwing session, the US and China have finally cooled down the rhetoric.  It’s now been a few months since I have seen any articles on a potential invasion of Taiwan.  Putin’s mad foray into the Ukraine is looking more and more like it will drag on for years.  The harsh reality is this is probably in NATO’s best interest as having the Russian army tied up and being ground down in Ukraine keeps it from creating trouble elsewhere. 

Instead of going through a methodical analysis of different parts of the Supercar market, as there are plenty of better informed people who already do that, I thought it might be more interesting to layout a few things that have caught my attention.

The Modern Era (2010 ->)

The Hypercar Trinity

Prices on the 2013/2014 Hypercar Trinity, which include the oddly named Ferrari LaFerrari, the McLaren P1, and the Porsche 918 have been very stable through 2022 with not a lot of cars changing hands, at least publicly.  LaFerraris now sit squarely in the $2-$4 mil. range depending on spec and mileage with the higher number being achieved by LaFerraris that have sadly never felt a leaf, rock, or pothole under their tires. The last two to hit the auction block were both low mileage car, neither car hit the low estimate, and both were no sales.  The number of LaFerraris coming into the market in the last 12 months has dropped off rather substantially.  Rumors that one of the requirements for obtaining a build slot for the successor might be current ownership of a LaFerrari would certainly put a damper on the market.  Both McLaren P1s and Porsche 918s moved up from early Covid lows of $800k-900k.  918s now sit in the $1.4-$1.46 mil. range which is up by about $200k from early 2023 but on par with 2022..  P1s are a bit of a different story.  Four P1s have been sold at auction in the last 3 months.  None hit the low estimate but were hammered sold.  Two of the cars went for right around $1 mil., 1 for $1.24 mil. and the final one hit $1.9 mil.  The difference between the 4 cars, location, and mileage.  The $1.9 mil. P1 was a US spec car and had under 3k miles on it.  The others were all EU spec and over 5k miles.  Where P1 prices go from here will be very interesting to watch but the market seems to be bifurcating dramatically between garage queen museum pieces and drivers with US spec cars demanding a slight premium which is unlikely to last.  I expect the next generation of Hypercars to be announced by at least one of the three manufacturers in 2024, with the others following in 2025.  What this does to the values on the last generation will be interesting to see but at least initially I doubt it will have a positive effect. The LaFerrari is a possible exception if Ferrari makes current LaFerrari ownership one of the critical criteria for getting an allocation of its next Hypercar.  All of these models are falling into the exploding maintenance costs category as their hybrid technology ages.  When annual service bills start approaching the cost of a nice used Ferrari 458, McLaren 650S, or 911 Turbo, it will have an impact.  These are also not cars you can just park in a warehouse and forget.  They need to be constantly on life support (i.e battery chargers) and do much better when used regularly than when they sit.  The irony is the ones that sit, are the ones most highly valued by the market. 

And a brief word on the McLaren Speedtail

Speedtails are an interesting case.  To start, its positioning is a bit of a convoluted mess, about on par with the French battle plan at Agincourt.  The Project BP23 (which became the Speedtail) started life conceptually as modern version of the F1.  Somehow along the way that got interpreted as meaning it had to have a higher top speed. I understand this was very much driven by the former CEO.   Lightness, agility, and usability all seemed to have gotten pushed aside in a myopic lust for a higher terminal velocity.  The net result was a highly complex hybrid, that’s 3 ft longer than the original, 1,000 lbs heavier, has 422 bhp more, but is only 7 mph faster in a straight line.  Given its far more compact size and weight, the earlier car would like murder the Speedtail around any track.  Like the original McLaren F1, only 106 were produced and longer term the low production numbers should help values, but this could take a decade or longer before it plays out.  In terms of values today, you are catching a falling knife.  In the last two years at auction, Speedtails have gone from a high sale of $3 mil. in Jan 2022 to the most recent sale of $1.83 mil. in Jan 2024. It’s been an almost straight line south between these two sales.  Putting additional pressure on values, of the 10 Speedtails that have come up for auction in the last 2 years, 5 were no sales and several of these cars appeared at multiple different auctions at ever decreasing high bids.   Unlike the P1 or Senna, the Speedtail is just not a car that creates any love or excitement in the collectors/enthusiast community right now. 

The Gen 2 Ford GT: Holding Steady…..just don’t drive it

Ford’s stated goal when they launched the Gen 2 Ford GT in 2015 was to sell only to owners who would drive their cars.  Today it’s nearly impossible to find a major auction where at least one Gen 2 Ford GT isn’t in the catalog.   Of the Ford GTs that have been hammered sold in the last year, over half had less than 50 miles on the odometer.  Clearly Ford did about as good of a job selecting Ford GT customers who would drive the cars as Liz Truss did on choosing a Chancellor of the Exchequer or John McCain did on choosing a running mate in 2008.  Almost all Gen 2 Ford GT’s have odometers indicating that new tires will not be needed any time in the near future, values have held very steady over the last several years and are still well over the original list price.  The two high sales in the last year were both at $1.25 mil. for cars with delivery miles and the low sales were around $800k for cars that had been ever so slightly used. This is about on par with 2022 results.  It’s one market that I really can’t make any sense of.  With 1,350 built, the Gen 2 Ford GT isn’t exact rare, and looking at the basic performance stats a rarer 2015 McLaren 675LT would leave it in its rear-view mirror. 

The Ferrari V12 GTs: Still Depreciation Champs?

I have been following the Ferrari F12 and 812 market fairly closely for over 2 years now.  Adding a Prancing Horse badged V12 GT to the garage has been high on my list for quite some time, but I am not in a rush and refuse to pay a premium for a car that has traditionally been the depreciation champion of the Ferrari line up.  The number of F12s on the market is consistent with 6 months ago but twice the number of 12 months ago.  Today there are 16 F12s on the US Ferrari preowned website ranging in price from $230k to $295k and 48 on Autotrader starting at $190k.  Prices on F12s look like they have dropped by at least $40k in the last year but have been stable for the last 3 months.  Longer term I would guess F12s will settle in the $180k-$250k range depending on spec and mileage.   Over the last 6 months, it’s the 812 that has dropped almost as fast as Ron DeSantis’ campaign for President.  For the 812, inventories are substantially higher today vs. a year ago with a hefty 38 812s on the US Ferrari preowned website ranging in price from $316k to $410k and 74 listed on Autotrader.  I expect we will see the first 812 listed on the US Ferrari preowned website below $300k shortly.  This should push the over ambitiously priced F12s down towards that long term $180k-$250k range.  Ten years down the road, I would not be surprised to see F12s trading at higher values than 812s.

Aston Martin Vanquish Gen 2 2012-2018: The V12 Bargain Buy?

The 2nd generation 2012-2018 Vanquish was basically an evolution of the DBS.  The Vanquish is built off the same platform with a few styling cues swiped off the One-77.  The Gen 2 Vanquish was only sold with an automatic gearbox.  Early models came with a 6 speed autobox with later (mid 2014-2018) switching to a much improved 8 speed ZF automatic.  A further update with increased horsepower and revised aerodynamics was delivered in 2017 with the cars now being badged Vanquish S.  Today you can find higher mileage coupes starting at $70k with Volante’s starting at $93k.  The later “S” models of both have dropped by $40k in the last 8 months to $160k.  The low end of the market has dropped by $20k in the last 8 months and post 2014 Volante’s are down by $30-40k.  The later model Vanquish and Vanquish S’ are still depreciating, and probably have another $50k to go before they flatten out.  With 46 listed for sale on Autotrader plus an additional 7 on the Aston Martin Preowned USA site right now, it is a buyer’s market with cars sitting for extended periods.  For example, there is one 2015 Vanquish Carbon Edition Volante that has been sitting at the official Aston Martin dealer on Long Island for close to a year now.  Its price has drifted south slowly but clearly not enough to move it off the showroom floor.  Eight months ago, there seemed to be a $20-30k spread between similar cars listed on independent dealerships vs. at official Aston Martin dealerships.  That spread has now basically disappeared which probably reflects the fact that cars are sitting on the market for extended periods.  Recent decreases in values points to a more stable market going forward.  At 60% of the cost of a compatible Ferrari F12, the Vanquish is an intriguing option.

The Classics (90’s & 00’s)

The Ferraris: A bit of a mixed bag.….

F50s have risen from just under $2 mil. in 2019 to topping out at $4.9 mil. in Dec 2022.  The march up has been very consistent until 2023.  Since then, the market has stalled with the last one going for a more modest $3.9 mil.  Ferrari Enzos on the other hand have been trading in the $2 – $3 mil. range depending on color and mileage for most of the last decade.  In 2023, on fairly thin data, it looks like they might have taken a bit of a step up to be more in the $3 – $4 mil. range with the last sale of a very low mileage Enzo crossing the $4 mil. line for the first time.  It’s clear that at least several owners think that is about the top of the market.  In 2023 you had 4 Enzos show up at auctions, and in 2024 there have already been 3.  Of the 3, two sold, one for $4 mil. and the other for $3.7 mil.  While the F50 has aged brilliantly and it is as engaging and rewarding to drive today as it was 25 years ago, the Enzo and its first generation F1 gearbox has aged about as well as the New York Jets decision to pick Zack Wilson in the 1st round of the 2021 NFL draft.

The 430 Scuderia is another Ferrari that has aged well with prices in the US rising from $180k in 2019 to almost twice that for a similar car today.  The final generation F1 gearbox in the 430 Scuderia is a joy to use and has aged well.  In fact, I would rate the 430 Scuderia as the best of all the 2000-2010 Ferrari models.  While prices of 430 Scuderia have jumped in the US, they have only risen slightly in the UK and the gap today between the two markets is quite significant. 

Probably the biggest head scratcher in recent history is the huge jump in values on the Ferrari F355 GTS in 2023 that seems to be finally cooling.  The F355 GTS went from $70k a couple of years ago to an insane high sale at $307k for a Euro F355 GTS 6 speed in June 2023.  The last two F355 GTS sales I could find were in the $130k-$150k range which at least is a partial return back towards sanity.   What is hard to understand though is why the GTS commands a $50-70 premium over F355 Spiders.  The F355 GTS was the first Ferrari I owned and of the three F355 variants (Berlinetta, GTS, Spider) I would have put it squarely at the bottom of the pile.  Leaky roof panels, vague steering, and with the reliability of a coked up supermodel, it just doesn’t have that much charm. 

Porsche Carrera GT: Poster Child

Now this is an interesting one.  Since April 2023, the Carrera GT has been under a stop use order from Porsche due to the risk of a potential catastrophic suspension failure.   Porsche has indicated that the replacement parts will not be available until the 3rd Quarter of 2024.  Essentially this has turned all Carrera GTs into nothing more than garage art for almost a year now.  So far thought, it hasn’t impacted the Carrera GT market as 2023 values were very much on par with 2022 and the two sold so far in 2024 went for $1.7 mil. & $1.1 mil.  Apparently being able to actually drive the car isn’t a ky criteria for current Carrera GT buyers.  Longer term it looks like Carrera GTs are now $900k-$1.7 mil. depend on color and how much of their life they have spent under a car cover. 

Vintage (60’s – 80’s)

70’s Ferrari Fiberglass

Ever since I owned a Ferrari 308 GTB “Vetroresina” well over a decade and a half ago, I have always been intrigued by them.  These are the 1st generation Ferrari 308 GTBs produced in 1975-77 with fiberglass bodies.  Just over 800 were produced, making them rarer than either a similar era Ferrari Daytona or a Ferrari 512 BB.  For the better part of the last decade these “glass” 308s have commanded over a 100% premium vs. the far more common steel bodied 308s.  In the Covid era, they have traded hands remarkably consistently in the $150k range up through 2021.  Values have declined consistently since then with the last 308 GTB “Vetroresina” to cross the auction block in early Feb 2024 ending up as a “no-sales” at a high bid of $102k.   With steel 308 GTBs now looking like they are back to being $50k-$60k cars now, $100k for a 308 GTB “Vetroresina” seems about right.

Vintage Ferraris (the 60’s)

If you look at the longer-term trends on a few of the better known of the 60’s Ferrari models, the direction does seem quite clear at this point.  The Ferrari 365 GTB/4 Daytona’s sits near the bottom of the Vintage 2 seat GT pecking order and they are now rock steady in the $480-$600k range with 13 of the last 14 sales landing there.  With over 1,200 built, they are by far the most common of the Vintage Ferrari V12 GTs which is likely to help keep prices where they are today over the longer term.  The hype a few years ago that Daytona’s were about to become $1 mil. cars has aged about as well as a book by a certain British Prince.  Ferrari 275 GTB’s look to be $1.8 mil. to $3 mil depending on length of nose and number of carburetors.  The slide in 275 GTB’s has ended, and prices have now been stable for over 2 years.  One thing I have noticed is the quality of the 275’s coming onto the market has improved during this period.  The Ferrari 250 Lusso is on a similar track to the 275 GTB.  Back in 2015 they were $2 mil. cars and now $1.2-$1.5 mil. is where the market sits.  The most recent sale at auction was for $1.2 mil. for an older restoration that has spent most of the last 40 years sitting in a garage.  Values on earlier 250 GT Coupes are still sliding south.  A good example of this is a 1958 250 GT “Ellena” sold in Monterey in August 2023 for $1.1 mil but was a “no-sale” in Arizona in January 2024 with a high bid of $870k.  250 GT Pinin Farina’s are now consistently $350k cars vs. $500k a few years back.  Demographic shifts will continue to put pressure on the older cars with the less valuable or well known models taking the hit first.  These Vintage Ferraris are less appealing to the younger generation of enthusiasts who did not grow up with them on their bedroom walls.  These are also all cars that take real skill to drive and punish mistakes with massive repair bills with a high potential for broken bones. 

Summary

As of February 2024, we have a supercar market that has corrected to a large extend for the vintage cars but is in decline on many of the most recent modern models.  Interest rates have likely peaked, but a lot of the pain from that peak is still to come.  Those models that exploded in value during the Covid era have to a large extent come back to earth.  The Hypercar bubble is history, the latest ones launched are at best holding value.  With the next generation of hypercars from Ferrari, McLaren, and possibly Porsche expected in the coming years, the Hypercar market is likely to undergo a reset again.  Demographic shifts, as the percentage of the population that knows how to drive a manual car continues to decline, will likely continue to put pressure on the vintage market over the coming years.  However, if you have the cash, the coming year should provide some good buying opportunities.

 

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February 2024

 

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The SSO Awards: 2023

The SSO Awards: 2023

For the final article of 2023, I’ve put together the fourth annual SSO Awards, the motor industry least prestigious honors.  In putting the list together, I have to acknowledge, I have no real basis to be doing this (that’s better left up to the professional journalists and those that actually work in the automotive sector).  Therefore, I’ve taken the liberty to take a different approach that probably only amuses me but does give me a rare opportunity to use my very overpriced and fairly useless education.  Please excuse some of the more esoteric references.

Julius Caesar Veni Vidi Vici Award goes to Max Verstappen naturally.  Max completed dominated F1 this past season, winning 19 of 22 races and walking away with the championship.  His teammate, Sergio Perez came in 2nd, only won 2 races while finishing with less than half of Verstappen’s points in an identical car.  There hasn’t been a fight this lopsided since the US invaded Grenada. 

The Midas Touch Nugget goes to John Elkann, Executive Chairman of Ferrari & Chairman of Stellantis.  In a year when most automobile manufacturers saw stock prices headed south or sideways, Ferrari & Stellantis’ combined market cap increased in 2023 by a $52.4 billion.  This 2023 increase is just a bit more than Ford’s current total market cap of $49 billion.

The Whiplash Ribbon goes to Sergio Perez.  Poor underperforming Sergio has spent most of the 2nd half of the 2023 Formula 1 season looking over his shoulder trying to figure out if and when Daniel Riccardo will be replacing him at Red Bull.

The Battle of Teutoberg Forest Eagle goes to Ferrari F1 Team.  Like the Roman Legions in the Teutoberg Forest, a series of blunders both in terms of race car development and on track strategy sunk Ferrari’s F1 Title hopes in 2023.   

The Alchemist Award goes to McLaren’s F1 team for turning a race car that started the season off as essentially a lead brick into near podium gold by the middle of the season.

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it Trophy goes to Lawrence Stroll.  Back in 2000, Stroll took over control of Asprey and Garrard (A Royal Mess).  A&G then managed to burn through vast amounts of cash over a period of years, including opening a huge flagship store in New York City before Stroll & his partners sold their stake and exited the A&G business in March 2006.  In 2020, Stroll took control of Aston Martin.  In the years since, AML has managed to burn through vast amounts of cash and in June 2023, opened an ultra luxury flagship store in NYC (AML NYC Flagship Store).

The London Underground “Mind the Gap” Ribbon goes to Lance Stroll. In the same piece of machinery as Fernando Alonso, Lance Stroll managed to finish the 2023 F1 season with just 36% of the points scored by his teammate. However, as F1 leading member of the “lucky sperm club”, Stroll F1 seat for 2024 is probably the safest on the grid.

The Nostradamus Scroll for Truth & Prophecy goes to CJ Wilson.  CJ is a former Major League Baseball Player, Racer, and Dealer Principal for Porsche Fresno.  In a rare exhibition of raw honesty in the sport and supercar trade, CJ clearly communicated the situation on GT3RS allocations. 

The Pastor Maldonado Cup goes to Logan Sargeant for running up a $4.3 million tab for crash damage in the 2023 F1 season.  Filling out the podium are Carlos Sainz at $3.64 million and Sergio Perez with $3.22 million.

 

The Henry Ford Learning Opportunity Award goes to Ford, for the third year in a row.  Henry Ford famously said the “the only real mistake is the one from which we learn nothing”.  In 2023 Ford had a plethora of learning opportunities again as they lead the US market with 54 recalls affecting nearly 5.7 million vehicles, which was more than twice as many as #2 Stellantis.

 

The Neville Chamberlain Award goes to Aston Martin CFO Douglas Lafferty.  Back in May, regarding the DB12 production start up, Lafferty stated: “So far, things are coming together, and we would expect to be being able to meet our ramp-up curve for the first of the next-generation sports cars with a high degree of quality and a high degree of certainty on the product that we are delivering to the customers”. Given that Aston Martin cut its full year volume forecast in November and blamed it on production issues on the DB12, this statement turned out to be about as accurate as British Prime Minister Chamberlain declaring in 1938 that he had secured “Peace for our time”.

 

The Field of Dreams “If you build it, they will come” Chalice of Hope goes to Lucid.  Through Q3 2023, Lucid has continued to produce more cars in each quarter of 2023 than it has delivered and dropped its full year guidance by 20% in November.  As Lucid operates a direct-to-consumer sales approach, they don’t even have dealership network to push the excess production into unlike their new UK based strategic partner (Lucid – AML Partnership)

 

The Beauty is in the Eye of the Beholder Scroll is given to Tesla for the Cybertruck.  It has all the charm of cold soulless Soviet era Brutalist architecture. It will definitely take years to get used to……if it happens at all.

 

Roger Smith Award for Excellence in Automotive Chaotic Reorganization goes slightly belatedly to Thierry Bollore formerly CEO of Jaguar Land Rover (JLR).  After being fired by Renault’s board, Bollore was hired by JLR.  He used the same consultants at JLR that he had for his failed reorganization plans to Renault.  Bollore resigned from JLR for “personal reasons’ in late 2022.  (Note: Roger Smith was the CEO of GM from 1981-1990.  His era was later described by one of his successors as 12 years of management mistakes.)

 

The Spruce Goose Award goes to Aston Martin for the Valhalla.  Like the Spruce Goose, the Valhalla has taken 5 years to go from original proposal to a working prototype.  The Spruce Goose only flew once for 30 seconds and if rumors are to be believed, the Valhalla protype recently photographed at Silverstone isn’t capable of going more than 30 mph, which does explain why Aston Martin only released still images and no video. 

The Loch Ness Monster Award goes to De Tomaso for the P72.  After making a huge splash at both Goodwood and Pebble Beach with the P72 in 2019 there have only been a few sightings over the years of P72 prototypes.  But like the Loch Ness Monster there is no confirmation that an actual production car yet exists.

Margaret Thatcher Unceremoniously Dumped Trophy goes to Nyck de Vries who after half a season in F1 and scoring exactly zero points, was dumped by AlphaTauri in favor of last years “Thatcher” Award winner Daniel Ricciardo.  What goes around comes around……

The Coco Chanel “Imitation is the highest form of flattery” Pin goes to McLaren for the 750S.  It took a few years but McLaren finally took a page out of Ferrari’s book and with the 765LT & 750S and did something very similar to what Ferrari did a few years back with the 488 Pista & F8 Tributo.

The Henry VIII Cup for Progressive Thought Leadership is awarded to FIA President Mohammed Ben Sulayem for a long list of “accomplishments” since he took over the FIA including banning F1 Drivers from making ““political, religious and personal statements”, having past comments emerge that “ he did not like women who think they are smarter than men”, and deciding to enforce for the first time in many years a ban on drivers wearing jewelry.

The HRH Princess Anne Medal for Hard Work is awarded to Dario Franchitti.  Dario is not only the development driver for all new Gordon Murray Automotive cars, but he does the majority of the companies promotional videos and makes a ton of event appearances.  Not bad for someone who has been retired from racing for the past decade.

The Prince Harry Own Goal Cup goes to BMW.  BMW, which has huge ambitions for the China market, had to deal a PR nightmare at the Shanghai auto show due to a botched ice cream giveaway (BMW Issues Apology).

The Harry Potter Cloak of Invisibility is a tie between Martin Whitmarsh, CEO of Aston Martin Performance Technologies & Paul Walsh, Executive Chairman of the McLaren Group.  Both Whitmarsh & Walsh have maintained incredibly low profiles at the same time that others in their organizations seem to pander for constant media attention.

The Volkswagen Dieselgate Bag of Soot goes to Toyota.  It just emerged that Toyota’s Daihatsu Motor subsidiary has been falsifying safety data for years.  It appears it will be a very happy new year for Tort Lawyers around the global.

Thank you for taking the time in 2023 to read the musings of an amateur blogger with a passion for supercars.  I hope this puts a small smile on your face as we wrap up what’s been another interesting year. All the best for a safe, happy, healthy, and joyous 2024.

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December 2023

 

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Supercar Market Insights & Analysis – Nov 2023

Supercar Market Insights & Analysis – Nov 2023

Since I did the last Supercar Market update in July 2023, the world has changed……again.  We have two wars raging with the surrounding areas looking highly volatile.   Money is now very expensive and might get even more so in the coming months.  Mortgage rates in the US are now at a 20 year high with the Fed threatening to push rates even higher if inflation doesn’t come down soon.  Credit card and auto loan delinquencies are now well above pre-COVID levels and expected to peak in 2024 at around 10%.   The US House of Representatives was brought to a standstill and the Speaker of the House unceremoniously deposed by a Congressman currently being investigated by the House Ethics Committee for sexual misconduct, illicit drug use, and assorted other misconduct.  The new Speaker of the House of Representatives, who is also 2nd in line to the US Presidency, voted against certifying the 2020 US Presidential election.  The US now has a sitting President whose son has been indicted, and a former President who is facing criminal charges in 4 different jurisdictions.  Just to add a bit more legal excitement this year, that same former President was found liable for sexual abuse and defamation plus it turns out he committed fraud by shockingly inflating his assets by just a few billion.  The ghost of Richard Nixon has to be complaining that he was born fifty years too early.  It all makes Boris Johnson look pretty boring and down to earth. 

There are signs that something resembling normalcy might just break out again, David Cameron, the last adult to be British Prime Minister, was just brought back into the Government as Foreign Minister. Liz Cheney must see that as a sign of hope. However, as a true sign of the times, the Associated Press recently tweeted: “We recommend avoiding general and often dehumanizing ‘the’ labels such as the poor, the mentally ill, the French, the disabled, the college educated.” It wasn’t exactly well received in Paris.  I would like to note that the “French” fall between the “mentally ill” and “the disabled” while the “college educated” rank dead last. 

The Macro Situation

Which brings us to today. The rise in interest rates over the last year and a half has finally taken a real bite into the economy.  The housing market is just plain ugly right now with mortgage rates at a 20 year high.  To a large extent, the market has frozen up as many current owners can’t afford to sell or trade up as they would lose their current locked in low mortgage rate.  Despite threats from a number of quite angry high-profile CEOs demanding their staffs return to the office, remote and flexible working are here to stay.  The pendulum on DEI/ESG has finally begun its long swing back towards the center but some of the insanity around it will take a long time to work through (as an example a good friend recently lost out on a Board seat for which she was highly qualified as the company decided they wanted a Latina and didn’t realize she was Italian until the final round of interviews).   Several of those companies that seem to be talking the loudest about DEI/ESG have stock prices going sideways the fastest (example: Colgate-Palmolive).  A number of major money managers are closing EGS focused funds and the number of companies talking about it in the latest round of quarterly earnings has dropped by over half in the last 2 years.  In fact, Larry Fink at Blackrock refuses to mention it at all. Long term the companies that return to choosing the most qualified candidate for the job and focus first on investor returns will win in the marketplace. 

Inflation is finally starting to cool behind the Fed taking interest rates from basically 0% in 2021 to 5.5% as of July 2023.  The stock market has recovered a bit in 2023 with the DOW up 5% YTD after a torrid November rally.  After hitting parity to the $ back in late 2022, the € has stabilized and now sits at €1 = $1.10.  The British £ seems to be locked into a $1.20-$1.30 trading range long term now and currently sits at $1.27 = £1 but is still well off its pre Brexit levels.  I have a few UK based friends that are predicting that the UK will eventually return to the EU and I can’t see the British £ returning to a 2:1 $ exchange rate unless that happens.  After an extended mud throwing session, the US and China are finally looking to cool the temperatures as the Chinese economy has cooled off.  Putin’s mad foray into the Ukraine is looking more and more like it will drag on for years.  The harsh reality is this is probably in NATO’s best interest as having the Russian army tied up and being ground down in Ukraine keeps it from creating trouble elsewhere. 

Instead of going through a methodical analysis of different parts of the Supercar market, as there are plenty of better informed people who already do that, I thought it might be more interesting to layout a few things that have caught my attention.

The Modern Era (2010 ->)

The Hypercar Trinity

Prices on the 2013/2014 Hypercar Trinity, which include the oddly named Ferrari LaFerrari, the McLaren P1, and the Porsche 918 have been very stable through 2022 with not a lot of cars changing hands, at least publicly.  LaFerraris now sit squarely in the $2-$4 mil. range depending on spec and mileage with the higher number being achieved by LaFerraris that have sadly never felt a leaf, rock, or pothole under their tires. The number of LaFerraris coming into the market has dropped off this year rather substantially.  My guess is existing owners are holding onto their cars now waiting to see what Ferrari announces as it successor which is expected to happen in the next year.  Both McLaren P1s and Porsche 918s moved up from early Covid lows of $900k.  918s now sit in the  $1.1-$1.4 mil range which is off about $200k from 2022.  P1s are a bit of a different story, two crossed the auction block this year at $1.05 mil and two were in the $2 mil.  range.  The two high value P1 were both MSO special projects and have spent almost their entire life under a car cover.  The two others had been driven a few miles but still well under 5k. Where P1 prices go from here will be very interesting to watch but the market seems to be bifurcating dramatically between garage queen museum pieces and drivers.  I expect the next generation of Hypercars to be announced by at least two of the three manufacturers in 2024.  What this does to values on the last generation will be interesting to see but at least initially I doubt it will have a positive effect. The LaFerrari is a possible exception if Ferrari makes current LaFerrari ownership one of the critical criteria for getting an allocation of its next hypercar.  All of these models are falling into the exploding maintenance costs category as their hybrid technology ages.  When annual service bills start approaching the cost of a nice used Ferrari 458 or McLaren 650S, it will have an impact.  These are also not cars you can just park in a warehouse and forget.  They need to be constantly on life support (i.e battery chargers) and do much better when used regularly than when they sit.

And a brief word on the McLaren Elva

Elvas are an interesting case.  To start, they had a rather difficult “birth” with production numbers being cut twice before settling at 149 units.  Long term, the low production numbers should help values, but this could take a decade or longer before it plays out.  In terms of values today, it is very hard to peg.  List price was $1.7 mil. but by ticking a few boxes on the option list, you could easily be in for north of $2 mil. by the time it landed in your garage.  Six times an Elva crossed the auction block between Oct 2021 and Aug 2023 and not a single one of them was sold.  High bids on each ranged from a low of $1.3 mil. to a high of $2.1 mil.  Finally in Nov 2023 an Elva was hammered sold for $1.38 mil.  The insanity on this sale is it was the third time that car had been put up for auction.  The first time the seller rejected a high bid of $2.1 mil., the second time it was $1.6 mil. before finally accepting $1.38 mil.  Go figure.

The Ferrari F12 & 812: Still Depreciation Champs ?

I have been following the Ferrari F12 and 812 market fairly closely for 2 years now.  Adding a Prancing Horse badged V12 GT to the garage has been high on my list for quite some time, but I am not in a rush and refuse to pay a premium for a car that has traditionally been the depreciation champion of the Ferrari line up.  One that was close to an ideal spec recently popped up on the Ferrari Preowned site but it just happened to be at the one Ferrari dealer I would rather drop something heavy on my foot than ever deal with again.  The number of F12s on the market is consistent with 6 months ago but twice the number of 12 months ago.  Today there are 15 F12s on the US Ferrari preowned website ranging in price from $230k to $305k and 39 on Autotrader starting at $209k.  Prices on F12s look like they have dropped by at least $40k in the last year with $10k of that in the last 6 months.  F12 prices have been pushed down mostly by the recent drops in values on the 812 Superfast, which replaced the F12 in the Ferrari line up.  For the 812, inventories are substantially higher today vs. 6 months ago with a whopping 52 812s on the US Ferrari preowned website ranging in price from $320k to $440k and 89 on Autotrader.  I expect we will see the next big move south in F12 values when the first 812 is listed on the US Ferrari preowned website below $300k.  The way the market is moving, this is highly likely to happen in the next 3-4 months.

Aston Martin Vanquish Gen 2 2012-2018: The V12 Bargain Buy?

The 2nd generation 2012-2018 Vanquish was basically an evolution of the DBS.  The Vanquish is built off the same platform with a few styling cues swiped off the One-77 added.  The Gen 2 Vanquish was only sold with an automatic gearbox.  Early models came with a 6 speed autobox with later (mid 2014-2018) switching to a much improved 8 speed ZF automatic.  A further update with increased horsepower and revised aerodynamics was delivered in 2017 with the cars now being badged Vanquish S.  Today you can find higher mileage coupes starting at $70k with Volante’s starting at $105k.  The later “S” models of both have dropped by $30k in the last 6 months to $170k.  The low end of the market has dropped by $10k in the last 6 months and post 2014 Volante’s are down by $20-30k with cars sitting on the market for extended periods.  The later model Vanquish and Vanquish S’ are still depreciating, and I would expect that they will eventually settle down at a similar price range as the DBS.  With 52 listed for sale on Autotrader plus an additional 7 on Aston Martin Preowned USA right now, it is a buyer’s market.  Six months ago, there seems to be a $20-30k spread between similar cars listed on independent dealerships vs. at official Aston Martin dealerships.  That spread is now closer to $10k which probably reflects the recent decreases in values but points to a more stable market going forward.  At 60% of the cost of a compatible Ferrari F12, the Vanquish is an intriguing option.

The Classics (90’s & 00’s)

The Ferraris: Steady as She Goes….

This one’s a bit painful to write as we sold our Ferrari F50 back in 2014, but over the last decade, F50s have gone from the ugly unloved stepchild in the Ferrari limited edition line to the most lusted after of the group, and for good reason.  An hour’s drive in one provides all the proof needed.  F50s have risen from just under $2 mil. in 2019 to topping out at $4.9 mil. in Dec 2022.  The march up has been very consistent until this year.  Since then, the market has stalled and with the last one going for a more modest $3.9 mil.  Ferrari Enzos on the other hand have been trading in the $2 – $3 mil. range depending on color and mileage for most of the last decade.  In 2023, on fairly thin data, it looks like they might have taken a bit of a step up to be more in the $3 – $4 mil. range with the last sale of a very low mileage Enzo crossing the $4 mil. line for the first time.  While the F50 has aged brilliantly and it is as engaging and rewarding to drive today as it was 25 years ago, the Enzo and its first generation F1 gearbox has aged more like fresh seafood. 

The 430 Scuderia is another Ferrari that has aged well with prices in the US rising from $180k in 2019 to $100k more for a similar car today.  The final generation F1 gearbox in the 430 Scuderia is a joy to use and has aged well.  In fact, I would rate the 430 Scuderia as the best of all the 2000-2010 Ferrari models.  What is a bit strange is while prices of 430 Scuderia have jumped in the US, they have only risen slightly in the UK. Probably the biggest head scratcher though is the huge jump in values on the Ferrari F355 GTS that continues to this day.  It seems to be mostly driven by Bring A Trailer.  The F355 GTS has gone from $70k a couple of years ago to an insane high sale at $307k for a Euro F355 GTS 6 speed in June.  They now sit regularly in the $150-200k range and command a $50-70 premium over F355 Spiders.  The F355 GTS was the first Ferrari I owned and of the three F355 variants (Berlinetta, GTS, Spider) I would have put it squarely at the bottom of the pile.  Leaky roof panels, vague steering, and with reliability that both EasyJet and RyanAir would be horrified at, just doesn’t have that much charm.  Ferrari 599 GTB values have remained very steady over the last several years in the $140-200k range depending on year, spec, and mileage.  As 812s continue to drop in value, I would expect that this will have a bit of a knock on effect on 599s over the next 1-2 years.

Porsche Carrera GT: Poster Child

If there is a poster car for the COVID supercar market price jump insanity, the Porsche Carrera GT would be a leading contender.  For most of its first decade of existence, Carrera GTs were $300k-$450k cars.  In 2014, they started climbing and by late 2015 the new range was $600k-$800k.  This held until the beginning of 2022 when suddenly Carrera GTs jumped by $1 mil. to $1.8 mil before finally hitting an all-time auction high of $2 mil. in March 2022 for a 182 mile grey car.  Since then, it’s been a downward slope with most auction sales closer to the $1 mil. mark than the $2 mil. mark with a couple falling back under $1 mil. In fact, 4 of the 10 Carrera GTs sold at auction this year were under $1 mil. I had one Porsche expert tell me early in 2023 that he believes they will drop back down to the $800k range.  He was spot on as a silver Carrera GT that had a few miles on it went for $834k in October. Longer term it looks like Carrera GTs are now $800k-$1.4 mil. depend on color and how much of their life they have spent under a car cover. 

The 90’s Jaguar Supercars

After not a single Jaguar XJR-15 crossed the auction block in 2018-2020, seven have done so in the last 2 years.  The first of these was the high sale at $1.7 mil. in Aug 2021, the next closest XJR-15 made $1.2 mil. and the low was $900k.  Given that XJR-15s might be beautiful to look at but are completely demonic to drive, and there are only 50 (or 53 depending on who you ask) of them, this $900k-$1.2 mil range is probably where they will now sit.  To give you an idea of how completely demonic they are to drive, the XJR-15 is a 31 year old car now.  Of the seven that have come up for auction, the highest mileage car was still under 1k miles and three of them were under 200 miles. 

XJ220s are a bit of a different story, as one of the 90s most unloved supercars, unlike just about everything else, they never really have had a major run up in values in the last several years.  The peak was around $600k whereas today they are $400-500k cars. Most XJ220 have rarely been driven and around half the cars coming up at auction in the last couple of years had under 2k miles on the odometer. 

Vintage (60’s – 80’s)

70’s Ferrari Fiberglass

Ever since I owned a Ferrari 308 GTB “Vetroresina” well over a decade and a half ago, I have always been intrigued by them.  These are the 1st generation Ferrari 308 GTBs produced in 1975-77 with fiberglass bodies.  Just over 800 were produced, making them rarer than either a similar era Ferrari Daytona or a Ferrari 512 BB.  In fact, I would put it in a similar category with the Dino 206 which preceded the hugely popular Dino 246 GT.  For the better part of the last decade these “glass” 308s have commanded over a 100% premium vs. the far more common steel bodied 308s.  In the Covid era, they have traded hands remarkably consistently in the $150k range up until the last year.  Values declined consistently through 2022 hitting a low of $108k in December 2022.  This year has been a bit more of a rollercoaster with a concours quality restored blue Euro fiberglass 308 GTB going for $280k in March at RM Sotheby’s Amelia Island auction but the latest two sales were at $85k and $111k.  My guess is a number of speculators were hoping that the 308 GTB Vetroresina would be the second coming of the Dino 246 GT and values would skyrocket into the $400k range in just a few years.  At this point it looks more like the second coming of the 512 BB with values off by a 1/3 vs. Pre COVID bubble highs.

I looked at two 308 GTB “Vetroresinas” this year.  Still waiting for compression test numbers on the first and never did hear back on the second after pointing out that it was well overdue for a cambelt change. 

Vintage Ferraris (the 60’s)

If you look at the longer-term trends on a few of the better known of the 60’s Ferrari models, it is a bit of a mixed bag but the direction does seem clear.  The Ferrari 365 GTB/4 Daytona’s sits at the bottom of the 2 seat GT pecking order and they are now rock steady in the $500-$600k range.  The hype a few years ago that Daytonas were about to become $1 mil. cars has aged about as well as a Jared Kushner’s Middle East peace plan. Ferrari 275 GTB’s look to be $1.5 mil. to $3 mil depending on length of nose and number of carburetors.  The slide in 275 GTB’s has ended, and prices have stabilized over the last 2 years.  The Ferrari 250 Lusso is on a similar track to the 275 GTB.  Back in 2015 they were $2 mil. cars and now $1.2-$1.5 mil. is where the market sits.  One 250 Lusso did bring $2.6 mil at auction in August 2023 but it was a rare perfectly restored car with a fully documented history.  The most recent sale at auction was for $1.3 mil. for an older restoration that would now be described as a very nice “driver”.  Values on the 60’s 2+2 Ferraris look to be off Pre Covid highs by 20-30% now and will likely fall further.  These models all have the same eye watering maintenance costs of other 60’s Ferraris worth multiple times as much.  The maintenance costs were easy to justify when values were rising but in a stable to declining market it becomes far more difficult to.  Demographic shifts will continue to put pressure on the older cars with the less valuable or well known models taking the hit first.  These Vintage Ferraris are less appealing to the younger generation of enthusiasts who did not grow up with them on their bedroom walls.  These are also all cars that take real skill to drive and punish mistakes with massive repair bills with a high potential for broken bones.  The other issue is with each passing year, finding a skilled mechanic who can care for the car is becoming increasing difficult. 

Vintage Aston Martins DB5 & DB6

If you look at the longer-term trends on the main 60’s Aston Martin models, the direction does seem clear.  Back in 2020-2021 I couldn’t find any DB5 sales where the number began with anything less than a “5”.  This year there have been several sales on the $300-400k range.  DB5s look to have now settled in the $400k-$550k range depending on condition and spec.  This is down from $700-$850k for a similar car a few years back.  It’s the lower value DB6 coupes that have held value better.  For the last 2 years they have been reliably $150k-$200k cars.  The higher powered DB6 Vantage still commanding a 50%-100% premium over the base DB6 depending on condition.  Like with the 60’s Ferraris, demographic shifts will continue to put pressure on the older cars, so I don’t see these rising in value again anytime soon.  Vintage Aston Martins are cars that take real skill to drive well and are a bit of an acquired taste as light and nimble are not words normally used to describe any of them.  Condition on all is a huge driver of value as restoration costs on all are eyewatering. 

Summary

As of November 2023, we have a supercar market that is generally holding stable for the  vintage cars but is in decline on most of the more classic & modern models.  Interest rates have likely peaked, but a lot of the pain from that peak is still to come.  Those models that have exploded in value during the Covid era are the ones most likely at risk of a second rapid decent.  The Hypercar bubble is history, the latest ones launched are at best holding at MSP.  Demographic shifts, as the percentage of the population that knows how to drive a manual car continues to decline, will likely continue to put pressure on the vintage market over the coming years.  However, if you have the cash, the coming year will likely be a good time to start looking for your next garage addition.

 

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