Analysis of Maserati’s 2023 Results

Analysis of Maserati’s 2023 Results

Stellantis reported their 2023 results last week.  As part of the Stellantis group, Maserati’s numbers were included in the reporting.  Maserati is only brand within the group for which Stellantis breaks out even a limited amount of financial information on.  Based on that limited information, I have pulled together a brief anaylsis on Maserati’s 2023.

 

A Short History

For Maserati, its current era started in 1993 when Fiat acquired Maserati.  In 1999 Ferrari (which at the time was 90% owned by Fiat) took full ownership and control of Maserati.  Under Ferrari’s ownership, Maserati’s factories were modernized, and a range of new, vastly improved models powered by Ferrari supplied engines were developed.  These models included the Coupe, Spider, GranSport, GranTurismo, Quattroporte Gen 5, and MC12 hypercar.  It was also during this era that Maserati reentered the US market.  The era of Ferrari’s direct control of Maserati however was short, and in 2005 Fiat resumed direct control of Maserati.  Fiat later acquired Chrysler, becoming FCA and the merged in 2021 with Peugeot to form Stellantis.  Today, Maserati is one of 14 major global car brands within Stellantis.  

Starting with a very high level overview of Stellantis’ results as the overall health of the parent company is critical to being able to both fund & support Maserati’s ambitions:

 

  • Stellantis Full Year Key Results: The key numbers for Stellantis in 2023 were 6,175K cars sold, (up 5.7% vs 2022), Net Revenues of €189,544 million (+5.5%), and net profit of €18,625 million (+11%). Net profit growing at twice the rate of revenue is the sign of a well run business that has its costs well under control. Industrial Free Cash Flow was €12,858 million, up €2,039 million (+19%).    In addition, Stellantis finished 2023 with €61,610 million of Liquidity.

 

Looking at the high level numbers, it’s not a surprise that Stellantis leads all major car manufacturers in delivering total shareholder return over the last 2 years. Seems that Chairman John Elkann (who is also the Executive Chairman of Ferrari) has the golden touch in both the mass and luxury automobile markets.

                                                    

  • Maserati Full Year Key Results: The key numbers for Maserati in 2023 were 26,600 cars sold, (up 2.7% vs 2022), Net Revenues of €2,335 million (+0.6%), and operating income of €141 million (-29.9%). The drop in operating income is mainly due to increase in depreciation & amortization of R&D costs related to the launch of new models.

 

  • Portfolio: Maserati launched three new models in 2023, the mid engine MC20 Cielo (convertible) supercar, the Gen 2 GranTurismo, and the mid size Grecale SUV. The MC20 coupe, Levante SUV, and Quattroporte & Ghilbi sedans filled out Maserati’s 2023 lineup.  2023 was also the last year of Ferrari’s engine supply agreement with Maserati so going forward, most Maserati models will be powered by either Maserati’s bespoke Nettuno V6 twin turbo or the Folgore EV system.

 

  • Product Mix & Profitability: While Stellantis does not provide any geographic or model sales data for Maserati. However, in combing through the fine print, they do indicate that the Grecale & new GranTurismo have had a positive impact on volume while the MC20 has helped with mix.  Unfavorable foreign currency translation for the US Dollar, Chinese RMB & Japanese Yen were listed as drags on revenue which is an indication that these are all quite sizeable markets for Maserati.

 

  • Future Models: The two current sedans, the Ghilbi & Quattroporte are slated for discontinuation shortly and I expect they will be replaced by a new Quattroporte Gen 7 in 2025. The same holds for the Levante.  An unrestrained track only version of the MC20 (MCXtrema) was first shown last August and I would expect deliveries to start later this year.

Summary

Maserati’s journey over the last several decades has taken it from the edge of the abyss in the early 90’s, to survival under FIAT, rebirth as part of the Ferrari empire, to treading water for a decade, and now finally to a new beginning as Stellantis’ luxury brand.  In 2019, Maserati produced 19k cars, in 2020 (COVID) it was 17k, in 2021 it rose to 24k, in 2022 to 25.9k and in 2023 up to 26.6k.  This shows solid healthy multiyear growth on par with other well performing luxury car companies.  Stellantis certainly has the financial and engineering resources needed to nurture a successful Maserati.  The portfolio today is easily Maserati’s strongest in its history and with a new Quattroporte and Levante coming in 2025, it will only get stronger.

 

 

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Analysis of Lucid’s 2023 Results

Analysis of Lucid’s 2023 Results

This week, the two COVID EV darlings, Lucid and Rivian reported their 2023 full year results.  I will cover Lucid in this article and come back to Rivian shortly.  Lucid caught my attention due to the EV technology agreement it signed with Aston Martin Lagonda (AML) in 2023.  Both Lucid & Rivian IPO’ed in 2021 and have been developing Electric Vehicles since the mid 2010’s.  Lucid stock peaked at $55.21 in November 2021 and is currently trading at $3.00 per share.  Over the same period, Rivian stock has crashed from a high of $129.95 to $11.16.  Both have the very rare honor of making AML look like a better investment over the same period. The question is why, what has happened, and what does the future look like.

 

I went through the transcript of Lucid’s earning call expecting to hear the CEO, Peter Rawlinson, talking about a company in crisis that’s taking urgent steps to turnaround the business.  Instead, what I heard about was a lot about industry accolades, technical prowess, and the beginning of a transformational phase as they expand their vehicle line up.  This was topped off with comments on growing brand awareness, coupled with confidence in the sales and marketing programs.  Buried in the middle of Rawlinson’s opening monologue was one short paragraph on cost control and later a brief comment on a few challenges, most of which are blamed on either external factors, or were expected, and have been overcome.   There was no comment on the fact that they lost nearly $3 billion in 2023 and missed the low end of their 2023 vehicle produced guidance by 16%.

According to Lucid, these are their 2023 highlights:

 

  • Lucid Air continued to garner significant industry accolades with the Car and Driver’s10 Best list for 2024, following the previous 2023 World Luxury Car of the Year and 2022 MotorTrend Car of the Year awards.

 

  • Unveiled the Lucid Gravity at a special launch event at the LA Auto Show; Lucid Gravity is a transformational vehicle taking Lucid to its next critical stage of growth.

 

  • Delivered Lucid Air Sapphire, the world’s first luxury electric super-sports sedan; extended technology lead with Pure achieving 4.74 mi/kWh.

 

  • Opened Saudi Arabia’s first-ever car manufacturing facility (AMP-2) and invested in the next phase of growth with the initial AMP-1 Phase 2 expansion.

 

  • Established Lucid Group’s technology arm with the signing of the first strategic technology arrangement with Aston Martin.

 

Lucid’s highlights are noticeably lacking in terms of celebrating any growth or financial milestones.  Probably shouldn’t be a surprise though given the CFO resigned in Dec. 2023.  Looking into the numbers:

  • Full Year Key Results: The key numbers for Lucid in 2023 were 8,428 cars produced, (up 17% vs. 2022), cars delivered 6,001 (up 37% vs. 2022). Net Revenues of $595 million (-2% vs. 2022), and net loss of $2,828 million (vs. loss of $1,305 million in 2022).  Selling, Administrative, and General (SG&A) expenses were also up 13% in 2023 to $937 million.  Free Cash Flow was negative $3,400 million vs. a negative $3,301 million in 2022.  Net loss per car delivered rose in 2023 to $471,000 from $299,000 in 2022.  In the earnings call, Rawlinson stated: “We are resolutely focused upon cost whilst continuing to prudently invest for the future.”  Certainly, I am not sure the first half of that sentence is coming through very clearly here.   

 

  • Financial Viability: Cash and short-term investments were $3,860 million at year end 2023, basically flat vs, year end 2022. Long term debt is currently just under $2 billion, also flat vs. prior year.  At its cash burn rate over the last 2 years, Lucid would appear to currently have enough liquidity to cover its needs into early 2025.  However, Lucid is projectioning Capex of $1.5 billion in 2024, which is up $600 million vs. 2023.  As Lucid’s net cash used in operating activities actually increased in 2023 vs. 2022 to $2,490 million, how they expect to cover the increase in Capex while not increasing the cash burn is unclear. If Lucid is unable to do this, they will run out of cash in Q4 2024 without a further injection of outside capital. However, as the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) is Lucid’s controlling shareholder with a 60% stake, Lucid has a much higher degree of financial security than most in its current financial position. PIF has invested $5.4 billion into Lucid over the past several years. At the current share price, PIF is significantly underwater on its investment. 

 

  • Distribution: Lucid operates a direct to consumer sales approach currently operates 38 Studios (Sales showrooms) and service centers in North America, 5 in Europe, and 2 in Saudi Arabia. In 2022, Lucid produced 2,811 more vehicles than they delivered, and in 2023, the number was 2,427.  The excess production vs. deliveries over the past two years now amounts to 85% of the actual cars delivered in 2023.  How this excess stock is being managed was not covered in the earnings report.

 

  • Market Cap: Lucid’s market cap has been in a bit of a free fall since going public in 2021. It peaked at $63 billion and sits today at a more modest $7 billion.  The shares have basically moved in the same direction as Newton’s apple over the last several years dropping from $55.21 to $3.00.  Post the most recent earnings release a pair of analysis’ cut their price targets for Lucid to $4 and $4.50 which would indicate they see little if any short term upside.

 

  • Portfolio: Lucid current sells what’s basically a single model in four different trims.  It’s a four door sedan with a starting price of $70k for the RWD and 430 bhp “AIR” model going up to $250k for the AWD 1,234 bhp “Sapphire” model. In late 2024 Lucid is planning to start production of the Gravity SUV with a price tag of $80k  Regarding the Gravity, the CEO Peter Rawlinson, was quoted:

 

“I am confident that the Lucid Gravity will redefine the electric SUV segment with incredible range, superior efficiency, fast charging speed, and interior space that you have to see to believe,” he told analysts. “It will be unlike anything in its class, and it will be massive for Lucid”

 

Which does bring to mind a certain other company that was going to be saved by the launch of an SUV highly touted by its Executive Chairman……

 

As Lucid’s guidance for 2024 production is 9,000 vehicles, slightly up vs. 2023 actual production, but down from the original 2023 guidance, it doesn’t appear that the Gravity will have any material impact on driving revenue until 2025.  However, effectively Lucid’s 2024 results will be based on the current line up of four door sedans which have never hit the guidance numbers.  A mid size vehicle is slated to be launched in 2026 which will allow Lucid to better compete with Tesla.  I was a bit surprised to not hear any mention of a truck in development.

 

The Market: In his comments, Rawlinson did acknowledge that “the macroeconomic and higher interest rate environment impact in this market.” While it is out of his control, this is unlikely to change dramatically in 2024.  In addition, it doesn’t appear that the Government of Saudi Arabia’s commitment to purchase up to 100,000 vehicles over a ten-year period (its actually only a commitment to purchase 50,000 vehicles and an option to purchase up to an additional 50,000 vehicles with no start date indicated) will have much effect on the 2024 numbers.

 

  • Capacity: Lucid currently operates two factories. The newly expanded AMP-1 facility in Arizona, and AMP-2 in Saudi Arabia.  AMP-1 is a fully vertically integrated facility and AMP-2 currently only does final assembly from “knock down” kits shipped from AMP-1.  Construction to expand AMP-2 to a fully integrated facility started in Jan. 2024.  Per the 2022 Annual Report, Lucid should have an estimated production capacity of 90,000 units per year installed capacity within 2024.  Lucid’s current 2024 guidance calls for production of 9,000 units.

 

 

Summary

While Lucid might have great, market leading technology, that isn’t always a winning hand.  Just ask the team at Sony that developed the Betamax. Right now, Lucid is burning through cash at a rate that would even make their recently signed strategic technology partner blush.  Lucid has built capacity to manufacturer 10X the number of cars they are estimating they will produce in 2024.  Capex in 2024 will be up by over 50% and where the funding for this will come from is a bit of a mystery.  One area where Lucid has driven growth is on the expense line with SG&A up in 2023 despite revenues being down.  The big bet is that the Gravity SUV will be a game changer and at least provide a bridge until a mid-size vehicle comes on line in 2026.  It would also be interesting to know what has happened to the extra 5,238 cars that Lucid has produced in the last 2 years but not delivered.  Right now, Lucid is a company very dependent on its largest shareholder for survival.  How patient they are and how long they give Lucid to make it will be interesting to watch.

 

Final Note: About a year ago, PIF held significant stakes in Lucid, McLaren, Aston Martin Lagonda and Pagani.  At that time, I did wonder if PIF had a master plan and was going to buy out the lot and merge them all into one luxury/Supercar company which would be able to compete with Ferrari across the board.  It would have been a very audacious plan, but with the right management and funding, it could have worked.  Since then, PIF has sold its stake in McLaren and seems to have no more interest in taking over Aston Martin than Mercedes does (i.e. none).  So much for great theoretical master plans.

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Book Review: McLaren The Road Cars 2010-2024 by Kyle Fortune

Book Review: McLaren The Road Cars 2010-2024 by Kyle Fortune

If Oxford or Cambridge University ever decide to offer a history course on the McLaren Automotive Road Cars, Kyle Fortune has just written the first book that would be required reading for this class.  The book very much reads like a biography of the cars, written by an individual who was present throughout the development journey.  In 15 short years, McLaren has produced a portfolio of supercars that have set new benchmarks for the industry.  It’s clear that Kyle had unprecedented access inside McLaren and to the teams developing these extraordinary supercars.  The multiple quotes from Chief Test Driver, Chris Goodwin, are hugely insightful.  Kyle nicely balances a wealth of technical details, with in-period quotes from some of the leading international Auto Journalists.  These quotes add both color and context to the impact these cars had at their launch.  Kyle does a nice job of avoiding the politics that always accompany cars of this nature and sticks to the facts.

Personally, I found the book fascinating.  As a fellow traveler on the McLaren Automotive journey, albeit from a customer’s standpoint, the amount of new information that Kyle provides is quite impressive.  His insights on the multiple “specials” that McLaren has produced over the last decade is extraordinary.  I have to admit, a few of these MSO special projects, like the MSO Carbon Series LT & MSO R, I had not heard of before.  The book is well laid out, easy to read, and beautifully illustrated with multiple great pictures, many of which will never have been publicly seen before.

 

McLaren The Road Cars 2010-2024 is a highly recommended read for any McLaren owner and enthusiast.

 

McLaren : The Road Cars, 2010–2024

By Kyle Fortune and Foreword by Jay Leno

9780764367311 published by Schiffer Publishing

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Ferrari’s 2023 Results: The Horse Takes A Victory Lap

Ferrari’s 2023 Results: The Horse Takes A Victory Lap

On February 1, 2024, Ferrari released their 2023 full year results.  Over the first three quarters of 2023, Ferrari delivered stellar performance and Q4 2023 was no exception. 

Back in November after the Q3 2023 results were released I wrote:

2023 Targets

Ferrari continues to execute its long term strategy brilliantly and its hefty $61 billion market cap reflects this.  Italy hasn’t seen a cash machine quite like this since the heydays of the Banco dei Medici. Ferrari’s strong balance sheet allows it to continue to reward its shareholders handsomely and retire debt ahead of schedule.   Vigna must lead Ferrari seamlessly through the evolution to a three powertrain platform business while managing an increasing broad and complex portfolio of models.  Getting the F1 Team back to the very front of the grid doesn’t seem likely to happen anytime soon but the reality is, the F1 team performance has no impact on car sales. In 2022, Ferrari beat their guidance on every single financial metric for the 2nd year in a row.  It looks like they will do the same in 2023.  Ferrari continues to come up with new and creative ways of increasing revenue while driving margin and does so in a manner that is true to its ultra-luxury positioning. 

 In the recent FY 2023 earnings call, Ferrari management basically took a well deserved victory lap.  In the earnings release Ferrari referred to the financial results as being “unprecedented”.  This wasn’t bragging, it was simply a statement of fact.  With revenues up 17% and net profit up 34% to over €1 billion for the first time in Ferrari’s history, 2023 was truly an outstanding year.  What makes this especially interesting is if you go back to the beginning of 2023 year, Ferrari was downplaying expectations, especially for the back half of 2023.  Ferrari has turned under promise and over deliver into an art form.  It’s the net outcome of having a clear long term strategy and then executing flawlessly and consistently against it.  The stock price is now sitting at an all-time high and the current market cap is now $70.7 billion, up $10 billion just since the Q3 2023 report.

Benedetto Vigna, the current CEO, has been in place for over 2 years now and it shows.  On the earnings call Vigna now comes across as confident and completely in command.   He is a bit more loquacious now but still reveals very little that deviates from the prepared script.  The CFO, Antonio Picca Piccon, was also on the call and did his usual nice job of concisely handling the questions tossed his way.  Vigna & Piccon appear to have a strong, cohesive, relationship.

Highlights from 2023 and the strategies that help deliver these outstanding results:

  • 2023 Key Results: The key numbers for Ferrari in 2023 were 13,663 cars sold, (up 3% vs 2022), Net Revenues of €5,970 million (+17%), and EBITDA of €2,279 million (+29%). Free Cash Flow was €848 million, up €251million (+42%).    Mix and pricing contributed €461 million.  Ferrari returned €800 million to its shareholders via both dividends and the share repurchase program in 2023. 

Probably the most impressive number here is the value (revenue) growth which is nearly 6 times the volume growth, hammering home Ferrari’s credentials as a true luxury brand.  A key contributor to the revenue growth was the increase in personalizations.  These accounted for 19% of total car and parts revenue in 2023, driven by paint, liveries and the use of carbon.  Ferrari’s ability to continue finding ways of extracting ever increasing sums of money from its customers is truly impressive. 

  • Product Mix & Profitability: Ferrari’s 2023 profits were €1,257 million up 34% vs. 2022. Mix & price was a positive €461 million driven by model mix and increased personalization.  Historically it’s been the big V12 GTs that have driven Ferrari’s profitability, this has now been taken over by the hybrids.  In fact, Ferrari no longer breaks out the split between V8s & V12s.  Reporting now is done on a ICE (internal combustion engine) and hybrid basis only.  In 2023, the split between ICE & hybrid was 56% & 44% respectively.  In 2023, the increase in shipments was driven by the Purosangue, 296, and the SF90.  The 812 Competizione, and Daytona SP3 help drive the mix increases.  When the first EV is delivered in late 2025, I would expect that will give margins a further boost. 

In his opening comments on the earnings call, Piccon mentioned that geographical mix was also a key driver of profitability.  EMEA (Europe Middle East & Africa) at 44% and the Americas at 28% were up versus prior year, representing more than 72% of our total shipments. Rest of APAC was flat at 17% and Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan declined to 11%.  Piccon indicated that the Greater China number were in line with the long term targets for this area as it is margin dilutive.

Ferrari’s ability to flex allocations based on both currency movements and demand is highly impressive.  In 2023, it’s been the Americas that have benefited from the largest increase in allocations, but all regions ex China were up in 2023.  It’s also worth noting that the Americas Region currently only receives 2/3rd the shipments that EMEA does. Given the size of just the US market, shows that Ferrari has a huge amount of untapped volume growth potential that it can access as needed.  It’s also a testament to Ferrari’s discipline when it comes to ensuring that demand remains well ahead of supply.

In terms of Ferrari’s never ending new and creative ways of generating incremental revenue, in 2023 they launched the Sport Prototipi Clienti Program initially to support owners of the 499P Modificata, the Ferrari Cavalcade Classiche legacy tours and in very early January, Ferrari announced they were entering the world of competitive sailing.  I believe this is the first step towards a broader push into the world of boating.  Many of Ferraris current customers are also boat owners so it makes sense to try to capture revenue in this area.  Also, Ferrari’s engine supply agreement with Maserati has just come to an end.  In 2023 Ferrari sold €127 million worth of engines to Maserati.   Redirecting this now spare engine capacity into a marine applications does seem like a convenient solution.  The luxury powerboat market has a global market value of around €9 billion and is project to double in the next 10 years.  Getting a slice of that could help fuel revenue growth for years to come.

  • CAPEX, & Debt: Ferrari has very ambitious plans and is generating the cash needed to bring them to life as demonstrated by the €869 million in 2023 CAPEX spending, up 8% vs. 2022. In the earnings release, a quote from Vigna indicated that future projects were on track which is critical as Ferrari has committed to launching 15 new models by 2026.  As per auto industry norms, Ferrari capitalizes around 50% of its CAPEX spending, with the balance hitting the P&L in the current year.  Ferrari’s debt load continues to be relatively modest and easily manageable given current Free Cash Flow.  Total debt is down slightly to €2.48 billion, and cash and equivalents decreased slightly to €1.12 billion (after paying out €795 million to its shareholders in 2023) with total liquidity of an impressive €1.7 billion.  Ferrari does have €675 million of debt coming due in 2024 but has enough cash on hand today to retire all that debt plus a large portion of the €907 million that will mature in 2025.   

 

  • Portfolio: Ferrari’s current portfolio is by far the most complex in its history with five new models (3 road, 2 track) launched in 2023. The strategy that has delivered the current portfolio was first articulated back in Q3 2018.  It was then that Ferrari changed the way it segmented its portfolio from V8s & V12s to Sport Range, Gran Turismo Range, Special Series, Icona, Track, and Hypercar.  This change in thinking gave Ferrari the license to build out its portfolio in a way it never had been able to in the past.  With the Icona, Ferrari has brilliantly created an avenue to leverage the nostalgia around its back catalog while spinning out an ongoing series of high margin multi-million dollar limited edition specials utilizing existing platforms (the SP3 Daytona is basically a La Ferrari minus the hybrid system). 

 

In terms of the order book, on the earnings call Vigna stated that the order book now stretches to the end of 2025 and on a few models even beyond.  Vigna was asked on the earnings call if he was seeing any impact from the poor current economic performance in key markets and the reply was that Ferrari’s client base did not seem to be impacted.  Vigna also stated that residual values have remained strong.  With a full order book helping to support residuals, Ferrari clearly sees the pre-owned market as another opportunity to drive additional revenue and programs such as the Ferrari Cavalcade Classiche tours are just another way to unlock that value.

 

  • Electric Cars: Ferrari remains committed to launching its 1st EV in Q4 2025. First shipments are likely towards the end of 2026.  Vigna indicated in Q3 2023 that he has driven a prototype of the EV but refused to say more.  Post 2025, Ferrari seems very committed to offering three drive train options, ICE, hybrid, and EV with hybrid likely being the majority of the volume given that its already very close to half. 

 

  • Racing: The main focus on the earnings call this time was on the win at the 24 hours of Le Mans. It is clearly a major point of pride at Ferrari and one they are looking to leverage across both the road and track car sides of the business.  The F1 season was mentioned briefly and best referred to as “difficult”.  However, the recent signing of Lewis Hamilton to drive for Scuderia Ferrari starting in 2025 did create renewed enthusiasm for the teams’ prospects in the future.

2024 Targets

Ferrari has become one of the world’s premier companies when it comes to “sandbagging”. The 2024 Targets feel very much like another round under promise and over deliver.  On the earnings call it was interesting to hear Ferrari management try to downplay expectations for 2024 while at the same time exuding long term confidence.  Overall, I believe this comment by Vigna best sums up Ferrari’s current situation:  “The record result of 2023, the exceptional visibility on our order book, and the extraordinary performance of our business allow us to look at the high end of the 2026 target with stronger confidence.” 

 

 

Summary

Ferrari continues to execute its long term strategy brilliantly and its hefty $71 billion market cap reflects this.  In the 8 years since Ferrari’s IPO, it has become the crown jewel in John Elkann’s empire with a market value on par with Stellantis despite selling only 0.002% the number of cars. Ferrari’s strong balance sheet allows it to continue to reward its shareholders handsomely and retire debt ahead of schedule.   Launching an EV that is true to Ferrari’s core values is the next major challenge facing Vigna.  He needs to do this flawlessly while managing an increasing broad and complex portfolio of models.  The F1 Team remains a sore point but the recent signing of Lewis Hamilton for the 2025 season has created renewed excitement while likely moderating expectations for the 2024 season.  The reality is, the F1 team performance has no impact on car sales. In 2023, Ferrari beat their guidance on every single financial metric for the 3rd year in a row.  It looks like they will do the same in 2024.  Ferrari continues to come up with new and creative ways of increasing revenue while driving margin and does so in a manner that is true to its ultra-luxury positioning. 

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